IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03409768.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel

Author

Listed:
  • Nader Nefzi

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

  • Joel Oudinet

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord)

  • Mouez Soussi

    (Prospective, Stratégies et Développement Durable PS2D - Prospective, Stratégies et Développement Durable)

Abstract

L’impact des transferts de fonds des migrants sur le taux de change effectif réel TCER est analysé pour un panel de trois pays du Maghreb, la Tunisie, le Maroc et l’Algérie, entre 1980 et 2015, à l’aide de la méthode des moindres carrés généralisés estimés réalisables (MCGE ou FGLS, « feasible generalized least squares ») qui permet d’obtenir des estima-tions cohérentes et efficaces et de réduire le biais. Les résultats montrent, contrairement à ce qui est constaté pour les pays d’Amérique latine, que l'afflux des transferts de fonds entraîne non pas une appréciation mais une très légère dépréciation du TCER à long terme. Ce taux de change effectif réel d’équilibre, estimé sur la base de ses fondamentaux macroéconomiques, permet de calculer son mésalignement avec le TCER observé. En période de surévaluation, les transferts de migrants ont tendance à réduire ce mésali-gnement. En effet, les monnaies sont moins surévaluées lorsque les transferts sont pris en compte. En période de sous-évaluation, comme c’est le cas plus récemment, les transferts ont tendance à accentuer légèrement cet effet, notamment dans le cas tunisien et à un moindre degré dans le cas algérien. En conséquence, les transferts par leur impact sur le taux de change n'ont pas d'incidence négative sur la compétitivité prix des trois pays du Maghreb. L’usage des transferts par les familles récipiendaires, les caractéristiques con-tracycliques des transferts des migrants, le rôle du secteur financier et la politique de change menée réduisent le risque de sur-évaluation du change, et le « syndrome hollan-dais » qui en découlerait.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nader Nefzi & Joel Oudinet & Mouez Soussi, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Post-Print hal-03409768, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03409768
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    2. Carlos Vargas‐Silva, 2009. "The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
    4. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
    5. Pablo Fajnzylber & J. Humberto López, 2008. "Remittances and Development : Lessons from Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6911, December.
    6. David N. Margolis & Luis Miotti & El Mouhoub Mouhoud & Joel Oudinet, 2015. "“To Have and Have Not”: International Migration, Poverty, and Inequality in Algeria," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 650-685, April.
    7. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    8. El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
    9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    12. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman & Pablo A. Acosta, 2012. "Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 377-395, May.
    13. Maurizio Bussolo & María Soledad Martínez Peria & César Calderón & Yira Mascaró & Mette E. Nielsen & Pablo Acosta & J. Humberto López & Çaglar Özden & Yoko Niimi & Luis Molina & Florencia Moizeszowicz, 2008. "Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59678 edited by J. Humberto López & Pablo Fajnzylber, February.
    14. Younger, Stephen D., 1992. "Aid and the Dutch disease: Macroeconomic management when everybody loves you," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(11), pages 1587-1597, November.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    17. Yves Bourdet & Hans Falck, 2006. "Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 267-284.
    18. Luis Miotti & El Mouhoub Mouhoud & Joel Oudinet, 2010. "Determinants and Uses of Remittances to Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries: Insights from a New Survey," Development Working Papers 288, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 30 Apr 2010.
    19. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Déterminants de long terme des taux de change réels pour les pays en développement : une comparaison internationale," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 13(1), pages 123-150.
    20. Juan Carlos Castañeda Fuentes & Juan Carlos Catalán Herrera, 2008. "Emigrant Remittances and the Real Exchange rate in Guatemala: an Adjustment-Costs Story," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 31-71, January-J.
    21. Jamal Bouoiyour & Velayoudom Marimoutou & Serge Rey, 2004. "Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 81-104.
    22. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4959-4970, December.
    23. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    24. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5545 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Barajas, Adolfo & Chami, Ralph & Ebeke, Christian & Oeking, Anne, 2018. "What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 272-288.
    26. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    27. Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank.
    28. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    29. Adams, Richard H., Jr., 1991. "The effects of international remittances on poverty, inequality, and development in rural Egypt:," Research reports 86, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    30. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    31. repec:idb:brikps:59678 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cynthia TABET & Michel ROCCA & Bachir EL MURR, 2022. "Transferts de fonds et effet boomerang : le cas du Liban (1990-2016)," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 133-148.
    2. Joel Oudinet, 2021. "L’impact de la migration sur le développement inclusif," Post-Print hal-04065384, HAL.
    3. Joel OUDINET, 2021. "Introduction - L’impact de la migration sur le développement inclusif," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 5-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mamun, Md. Al & Sohag, Kazi & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Remittance and domestic labor productivity: Evidence from remittance recipient countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 207-218.
    2. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    3. Jounghyeon Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Exchange Rate and Money Supply: Does “Openness” Matter in Developing Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(15), pages 3682-3707, December.
    4. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," CEPN Working Papers 2017-15, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    5. Adnan KHURSHID & Yin KEDONG & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN & Zhaosu MENG & Naila NAZIR, 2018. "Remittances Inflows, Gain of Foreign Exchange or Trade Loss? New Evidence from Low, Lower-Middle and Middle-Income Groups," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 20-41, December.
    6. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Hao, Linna & Ahmad, Shabbir & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Knowledge spill-over and institutional quality role in controlling Dutch disease: A case of BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Francois, John Nana & Ahmad, Nazneen & Keinsley, Andrew & Nti-Addae, Akwasi, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the long-run remittance-output relationship: Theory and new evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2013. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(35), pages 4959-4970, December.
    10. Nuno Baetas da Silva & João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2016. "Alternative Sources of Dutch Disease: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2016-10, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    11. Gazi M. Hassan & Mark J. Holmes, 2016. "Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1834-1853, November.
    12. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    13. Afi Etonam Adetou & Komlan Fiodendji, 2019. "Finance, Institutions, Remittances and Economic growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 1-4.
    14. Martin-Mayoral, Fernando & Proaño, Maria Belén, 2012. "Las remesas en América Latina, ¿amenaza u oportunidad? [Remittances in Latin America, a threat or an opportunity?]," MPRA Paper 43730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Remittances Inflows and Trade Policy," Remittances Review, Remittances Review, vol. 4(2), pages 117-142, October.
    16. Bayangos, Veronica & Jansen, Karel, 2011. "Remittances and Competitiveness: The Case of the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1834-1846.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Development Aid, Remittances Inflows and Wages in the Manufacturing Sector of Recipient-Countries," EconStor Preprints 213439, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Nuno Baetas da Silva & João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2016. "Alternative Sources of Dutch Disease: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2016-10, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    19. Fromentin, Vincent, 2017. "The long-run and short-run impacts of remittances on financial development in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 192-201.
    20. Hajer Habib, 2023. "Remittances and Labor Supply: Evidence from Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1870-1899, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transferts de fonds des migrants; Taux de change effectif réel; Syndrome hollandais; Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03409768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.