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Taux de change reel d'equilibre et politique de change au Maroc : une approche non parametrique

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Author Info

  • Jamal Bouoiyour
  • Velayoudom Marimoutou
  • Serge Rey

Abstract

Une estimation non parametrique du taux de change reel effectif d'equilibre de long terme du dirham vis-a-vis de l'Union europeenne à Quinze a ete realisee sur la periode 1967-2000 (donnees trimestrielles), en retenant les fondamentaux suivants : les termes de l'echange externes ; le taux d'ouverture de l'economie ; le ratio des depenses publiques (en pourcentage du PIB) et le ratio entre la balance commerciale et le PIB. Ce travail a permis de mettre en evidence des phases distinctes de sur/sous-evaluation du dirham. Ces mesalignements sont globalement coherents avec ce que peuvent donner d'autres etudes, avec des modeles theoriques differents. Par ailleurs, l'utilisation des methodes non parametriques et non lineaires permet de mieux apprecier l'evaluation du taux de change effectif reel en fonction des fondamentaux de l'economie.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2004)
Issue (Month): 97 ()
Pages: 81-104

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2004-1tc

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Keywords: Taux de change reel effectif d'equilibre; fondamentaux de l'economie; mesalignements; estimation non parametrique; estimation non lineaire; taux de change; politique de change; modeles;

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Cited by:
  1. Khaled CHNAINA & Farid MAKHLOUF, 2012. "Impact des transferts de fonds sur le taux de change réel effectif en Tunisie," Working Papers 2011-2012_4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jan 2012.
  2. Mohamed BOUZAHZAH & Radouane BACHAR, 2014. "Exchange Rate Policy in Morocco and Persistence of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 122-134.
  3. Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2005. "Partenariat Euro-marocain et dynamique des investissements directs étrangers
    [Euro-Moroccan partnership and dynamic investment foreign direct]
    ," MPRA Paper 45992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Bouoiyour, jamal & Kuikeu, Oscar, 2007. "Pertinence de la dévaluation du Franc CFA de janvier 1994 : Une évaluation par le taux de change réel d’équilibre. Cas de l’économie camerounaise
    [Relevance of the CFA France devaluation i
    ," MPRA Paper 31357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Baccouche, Rafik & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hatem, M’Henni & Mouley, Sami, 2008. "Dynamique des investissements, mutations sectorielles et convertibilité du compte de capital : impacts des mesures de libéralisation et expériences comparées Tunisie - Maroc
    [Dynamics of invest
    ," MPRA Paper 38148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. El Bouhadi, A. & Elkhider, Abdelkader & Kchirid, El Mustapha & Idriss, El Abbassi, 2008. "LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique
    [THE Exchange Rate Determinants in Morocco: An Empirical Investigation]
    ," MPRA Paper 24115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Belhadj, Aam, 2009. "Heterogeneity of the Maghreb: the results of optimized monetary rules," MPRA Paper 40374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Comment la dernière crise financière a relancé le débat relatif à l'arrimage du fcfa à l'euro
    [How the recent financial crisis have revived the debate on the parity between fcfa and euro]
    ," MPRA Paper 32077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Rey, Serge, 2005. "Régime de change, taux de change réel, flux commerciaux et investissements directs étrangers: le cas du Maroc
    [Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case]
    ," MPRA Paper 49503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. bouoiyour, jamal, 2006. "Productivité du travail, capital humain et écart technologique dans les industries manufacturières marocaines
    [Labor productivity, human capital and technology gap in manufacturing Moroccan]
    ," MPRA Paper 37035, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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