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Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account?

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  • Gazi M. Hassan

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • Mark J. Holmes

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

Abstract

We examine how workers’ remittances impact on the current account. In doing so, we focus on how remittances affect the sustainability rather than size of current account balances. We find that the presence of remittances make it more likely that exports and imports are cointegrated thereby lending support to weak sustainability where increased remittances are associated with a faster speed of current account adjustment (lower persistence), particularly for those countries characterised by already highly persistent current account balances. We find that remittances are beneficial to the current account balance. This is in contrast to a literature that emphasises an adverse Dutch disease impact of workers’ remittances on the real exchange rate in terms of reduced external competitiveness.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/1407.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 14/07.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:14/07

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Keywords: remittances; current account; sustainability; panel cointegration;

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  1. Hassan, Gazi & Holmes, Mark, 2012. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rate," MPRA Paper 40084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  3. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
  4. Michael T. Gapen & Ralph Chami & Peter Montiel & Adolfo Barajas & Connel Fullenkamp, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Promote Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 09/153, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Mark J. Holmes & Jes�s Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 730-740, 09.
  6. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
  7. Emmanuel K. K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman & Pablo A. Acosta, 2012. "Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 377-395, 05.
  8. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  10. Gupta, Sanjeev & Pattillo, Catherine A. & Wagh, Smita, 2009. "Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-115, January.
  11. Abu Siddique & E A Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2010. "Remittances and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh India and Sri Lanka," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-27, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  12. Luigi Bonatti, 2006. "Unbalanced Growth and the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 773-796, November.
  13. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "A Faith-Based Initiative Meets the Evidence: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 168-184, March.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  16. B. Bhaskara Rao & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2012. "Are the Direct and Indirect Growth Effects of Remittances Significant?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 351-372, 03.
  17. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
  18. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  19. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
  20. Arize, Augustine C., 2002. "Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-115, April.
  21. Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10975, The World Bank.
  22. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
  23. Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, 09.
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