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Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration

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  • Razmi, Arslan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Hernandez, Gonzalo

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

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    Abstract

    Many developing countries have attempted to pursue the East Asian growth model in recent decades. This model is widely perceived to have been based on export-led growth. Given that developed countries are likely to grow at a slower rate and be less willing to run trade deficits in the post-financial-crisis world can this growth model be sustained? Using panel data for Asian countries, this paper contributes to addressing this question by distinguishing between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth in order to more precisely identify the nature of growth in the pre-crisis decades.

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    File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2011.12.02.wp329.asia.sustain.export.growth.after.global.crisis.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 329.

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    Length: 40 pages
    Date of creation: 05 Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0329

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    Keywords: export-led growth; tradable-led growth; global imbalances; industrialization; capital accumulation;

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    1. Cadot, Olivier & Carrère, Céline & Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa, 2010. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1011, CEPREMAP.
    2. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
    3. Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2003. "Exporting Raises Productivity in Sub-Saharan African Manufacturing Plants," NBER Working Papers 10020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Armando Silva & Ana Paula Africano & Óscar Afonso, 2010. "Learning-by-exporting: what we know and what we would like to know," FEP Working Papers 364, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    6. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Renuka Mahadevan, 2007. "New Evidence on the Export-led Growth Nexus: A Case Study of Malaysia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(7), pages 1069-1083, 07.
    8. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 54-73, Summer.
    9. De Loecker, Jan, 2007. "Do exports generate higher productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 69-98, September.
    10. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2009. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 14632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Imbs, Jean & Wacziarg, Romain, 2000. "Stages of Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 2642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    13. Otaviano Canuto & Mona Haddad & Gordon Hanson, 2010. "Export-led growth v2.0," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10200, The World Bank.
    14. Adams, Charles & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances: Perspective from Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 157, Asian Development Bank.
    15. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Erratum: Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 168, Autumn.
    16. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    17. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
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