IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v29y2013icp45-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can Asia sustain an export-led growth strategy in the aftermath of the global crisis? Exploring a neglected aspect

Author

Listed:
  • Jimenez, Gonzalo Hernandez
  • Razmi, Arslan

Abstract

Employing panel data for Asian countries to distinguish between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth, we find that the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries, a variable largely ignored by existing studies, is robustly associated with growth. This finding has crucial implications given the expected deceleration of industrialized country import growth in the coming years. Most importantly, and contrary to some recent studies, prospects for continued growth, now centered on domestic tradable consumption or on developing countries as markets, may be limited. South–South trade may not be a good substitute for South–North trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimenez, Gonzalo Hernandez & Razmi, Arslan, 2013. "Can Asia sustain an export-led growth strategy in the aftermath of the global crisis? Exploring a neglected aspect," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 45-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:45-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007813000833
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2013.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm Level Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Microeconometrics of International Trade, chapter 1, pages 3-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    3. Pedro Martins & Yong Yang, 2009. "The impact of exporting on firm productivity: a meta-analysis of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 431-445, October.
    4. Adams , Charles & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of Global Imbalances: Perspective from Developing Asia," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 19-47.
    5. Irene Brambilla & Daniel Lederman & Guido Porto, 2012. "Exports, Export Destinations, and Skills," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3406-3438, December.
    6. Bastos, Paulo & Silva, Joana, 2010. "The quality of a firm's exports: Where you export to matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 99-111, November.
    7. Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2005. "Exporting raises productivity in sub-Saharan African manufacturing firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 373-391, December.
    8. Eric A. Verhoogen, 2008. "Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(2), pages 489-530.
    9. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2010. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 822-842, November.
    10. De Loecker, Jan, 2007. "Do exports generate higher productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 69-98, September.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    12. Dani Rodrik, 2009. "Growth after the Crisis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 27937, December.
    13. Canuto, Otaviano & Haddad, Mona & Hanson, Gordon, 2010. "Export-Led Growth v2.0," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 3, pages 1-5, March.
    14. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
    15. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    16. Armando Silva & Ana Paula Africano & Óscar Afonso, 2010. "Learning-by-exporting: what we know and what we would like to know," FEP Working Papers 364, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    18. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    19. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    20. Nguyen Hiep & Hiroshi Ohta, 2009. "Superiority of Exporters and the Causality Between Exporting and Firm Characteristics in Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series 239, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bastos, Paulo & Silva, Joana, 2010. "The quality of a firm's exports: Where you export to matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 99-111, November.
    2. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    3. Mukesh Kumar & Nargis & Azeema Begam, 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Gonzalo Hern�ndez Jim�nez & Arslan Razmi, 2014. "Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-741, September.
    5. Mohamed Chakroun & Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi, 2021. "Does export upgrading really matter to economic growth? Evidence from panel data for high‐, middle‐ and low‐income countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5584-5609, October.
    6. Amjad, Y. & Naseeem, N.A.M & Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Masron, tajul & Kriskkumar, K., 2018. "Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Malaysia: New Evidence Using Disaggregated Data of Exports," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(3), pages 167-179.
    7. Ng, Choy Peng & Law, Teik Hua & Wong, Shaw Voon & Kulanthayan, S., 2017. "Relative improvements in road mobility as compared to improvements in road accessibility and economic growth: A cross-country analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-33.
    8. Joerg Mayer, 2017. "How Could the South Respond to Secular Stagnation in the North?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 314-335, February.
    9. Eu Chye Tan & Chor Foon Tang, 2016. "Economic Growth Of Selected East Asian Countries: A Macroeconomic View Of Their Dependence On The Us And Europe," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(05), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Kollie, Genesis B., 2020. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in ECOWAS: A Panel Data Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arslan Razmi & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2011. "Can Asia Sustain an Export-Led Growth Strategy in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis? An Empirical Exploration," Trade Working Papers 23207, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Cebeci, Tolga, 2014. "Impact of export destinations on firm performance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6743, The World Bank.
    3. Gonzalo Hern�ndez Jim�nez & Arslan Razmi, 2014. "Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-741, September.
    4. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2018. "Opening and linking up: firms, GVCs, and productivity in Latin America," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 917-935, April.
    5. Irene Brambilla & Nicolas Depetris Chauvin & Guido Porto, 2017. "Examining the Export Wage Premium in Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 447-475, August.
    6. Cirera,Xavier & Lederman,Daniel & Máñez,J.A. & Rochina,M.E. & Sanchis,J.A., 2015. "The export-productivity link in Brazilian manufacturing firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7365, The World Bank.
    7. Ma, Yue & Tang, Heiwai & Zhang, Yifan, 2014. "Factor Intensity, product switching, and productivity: Evidence from Chinese exporters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 349-362.
    8. Adriana Peluffo, 2021. "The Impact of Export Destination on Skills in a Middle-Income Country," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 317-340, September.
    9. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2014. "International Linkages, Value Added Trade and LAC Firms' Productivity," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0198, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    10. David Aristei & Davide Castellani & Chiara Franco, 2013. "Firms’ exporting and importing activities: is there a two-way relationship?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(1), pages 55-84, March.
    11. Alvaro Garcia-Marin & Nico Voigtländer, 2019. "Exporting and Plant-Level Efficiency Gains: It's in the Measure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1777-1825.
    12. Yong Yang & Sushanta Mallick, 2010. "Export Premium, Self‐selection and Learning‐by‐Exporting: Evidence from Chinese Matched Firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1218-1240, October.
    13. Montalbano, Pierluigi & Nenci, Silvia & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2017. "Opening and linking up: Firms, global value chains and productivity in Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 2017-030, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    14. Irene Brambilla & Nicolas Depetris Chauvin & Guido Porto, 2015. "Wage and Employment Gains from Exports: Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 2015-28, CEPII research center.
    15. Kazuhiko Yokota & Kyosuke Kurita & Shujiro Urata, 2016. "In Search of the Learning-by-Exporting Effect: Role of Economies of Scale and Technology," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-27, June.
    16. Carlo Reggiani & Yevgeniya Shevtsova, 2018. "Trade and Productivity in a Transition Economy: the Role of Industry and Export Destination," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 395-428, September.
    17. Miguel Manjón & Juan Máñez & María Rochina-Barrachina & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2013. "Reconsidering learning by exporting," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(1), pages 5-22, March.
    18. Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Must Improved Labor Standards Hurt Accumulation in the Targeted Sector? Stylized Analysis of a Developing Economy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-09, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    19. Shevtsova, Yevgeniya, 2015. "International Trade and Productivity: The Role of Industry and Export Destination," MPRA Paper 69793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Yang, Yong & Mallick, Sushanta, 2014. "Explaining cross-country differences in exporting performance: The role of country-level macroeconomic environment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 246-259.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Tradable-led growth; Global imbalances; Industrialization; Capital accumulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:45-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.