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Can Asia sustain an export-led growth strategy in the aftermath of the global crisis? Exploring a neglected aspect

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  • Jimenez, Gonzalo Hernandez
  • Razmi, Arslan
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    Abstract

    Employing panel data for Asian countries to distinguish between different kinds of export- and tradable-led growth, we find that the proportion of a country's manufactured exports that is destined for industrialized countries, a variable largely ignored by existing studies, is robustly associated with growth. This finding has crucial implications given the expected deceleration of industrialized country import growth in the coming years. Most importantly, and contrary to some recent studies, prospects for continued growth, now centered on domestic tradable consumption or on developing countries as markets, may be limited. South–South trade may not be a good substitute for South–North trade.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 45-61

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:45-61

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

    Related research

    Keywords: Export-led growth; Tradable-led growth; Global imbalances; Industrialization; Capital accumulation;

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    References

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    1. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2006. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 549, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Irene Brambilla & Daniel Lederman & Guido Porto, 2012. "Exports, Export Destinations, and Skills," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3406-38, December.
    3. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    4. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    5. Jan De Loecker, 2004. "Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," LICOS Discussion Papers 15104, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
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    7. Eric Verhoogen, 2007. "Trade, quality upgrading and wage inequality in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Discussion Papers 0607-08, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
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    9. Canuto, Otaviano & Haddad, Mona & Hanson, Gordon, 2010. "Export-Led Growth v2.0," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 3, pages 1-5, March.
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    14. Van Biesebroeck, Johannes, 2005. "Exporting raises productivity in sub-Saharan African manufacturing firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 373-391, December.
    15. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
    16. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    17. Rodrik, Dani, 2009. "Growth After the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Pedro Martins & Yong Yang, 2009. "The impact of exporting on firm productivity: a meta-analysis of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 431-445, October.
    19. Nguyen Hiep & Hiroshi Ohta, 2009. "Superiority of Exporters and the Causality Between Exporting and Firm Characteristics in Vietnam," Discussion Paper Series 239, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    20. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
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