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International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks

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  • Jha, Shikha

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Kubo, Kensuke

    (Institute of Developing Economies)

  • Ramaswami, Bharat

    (Indian Statistical Institute)

Abstract

In recent years, rising food prices have returned as a concern for policy makers especially in developing countries. In this context, this paper examines how supply shocks, both domestic and foreign, have mattered to imports and consumption in the global rice market over 1960–2010. Such an investigation is important in assessing the role of trade in compensating for domestic shocks. If shortages lead countries to impose trade restrictions, then trade may not be allowed to play an important role in stabilizing consumption. The existing literature has highlighted the importance of these policy shocks in the world rice market and how they have worked to increase the volatility of prices and trade flows. Although trade cannot be expected to play a strong role when the major producing and consuming countries are simultaneously hit by negative yield shocks, such a scenario obtains in only 3% of cases. However, we also find that consumption fails to be stabilized even when domestic shocks are negative and foreign shocks are positive; but imports do peak. Thus, while trade does help in coping with domestic risks, it is unable to achieve full risk sharing. Therefore, no matter what are the foreign shocks, the principal concern is to stabilize consumption when hit by negative domestic yield shocks. The frequency of such shocks is about 12%. This brings into play domestic responses, and we find that domestic stocks have been important in stabilizing consumption. The reliance on domestic policies has in turn kept the rice market thin.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series ADB Economics Working Paper Series with number 372.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 26 Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0372

Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2013/ewp-372.pdf
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Keywords: food prices; risk sharing; rice market; international trade; supply shocks;

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2011. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 8494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Brian D. Wright, 2011. "The Economics of Grain Price Volatility," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 32-58.
  3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  4. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12, January.
  5. Paolo E. Giordani & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta, 2012. "Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Export Policy," Working Papers LuissLab, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli 1297, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
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