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Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Growth

Author

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  • Park, Donghyun

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Shin, Kwanho

    (Korea University)

Abstract

The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity. We examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region’s population and output. We then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. Our results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2011. "Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 281, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0281
    Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/economics-wp281.pdf
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    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
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    5. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    6. Jianmin Tang & Carolyn MacLeod, 2006. "Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 582-603, May.
    7. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández De Cos, 2008. "Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(3), pages 350-372, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Siow Li Lai & Tien Ming Yip, 2022. "The role of older workers in population aging–economic growth nexus: evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1875-1912, August.
    3. World Bank, 2016. "Taking Stock, July 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 24922, The World Bank Group.

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