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Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Temperature-Attributable Mortality

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  • Harding, Anthony
  • Keith, David
  • Yang, Wenchang
  • Vecchi, Gabriel

Abstract

Temperature-attributable mortality is a major risk of climate change. We analyze the capacity of solar geoengineering (SG) to reduce this risk and compare it to the impact of equivalent cooling from CO2 emissions reductions. We use the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model to simulate climate response to SG. Using empirical estimates of the historical relationship between temperature and mortality from Carleton et al. (2022), we project global and regional temperature-attributable mortality, find that SG reduces it globally, and provide evidence that this impact is larger than for equivalent cooling from emissions reductions. At a regional scale, SG moderates the risk in a majority of regions but not everywhere. Finally, we find that the benefits of reduced temperature-attributable mortality considerably outweigh the direct human mortality risk of sulfate aerosol injection. These findings are robust to a variety of alternative assumptions about socioeconomics, adaptation, and SG implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Harding, Anthony & Keith, David & Yang, Wenchang & Vecchi, Gabriel, 2023. "Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Temperature-Attributable Mortality," RFF Working Paper Series 23-23, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-23
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    File URL: https://www.rff.org/documents/3970/WP_23-23.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricke, Katharine L & Cole, Jason N S & Curry, Charles L & Irvine, Peter J & Ji, Duoying & Kravitz, Ben & MacMartin, Douglas G & Robock, Alan & Rasch, Philip J & Keith, David & Egill Kristjánsson, Jó, 2014. "A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering," Scholarly Articles 23936192, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Anthony R. Harding & Katharine Ricke & Daniel Heyen & Douglas G. MacMartin & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2020. "Climate econometric models indicate solar geoengineering would reduce inter-country income inequality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke & David Keith, 2012. "A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 649-668, February.
    4. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
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