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A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering

Author

Listed:
  • Ricke, Katharine L
  • Cole, Jason N S
  • Curry, Charles L
  • Irvine, Peter J
  • Ji, Duoying
  • Kravitz, Ben
  • MacMartin, Douglas G
  • Robock, Alan
  • Rasch, Philip J
  • Keith, David
  • Egill Kristjánsson, Jón
  • Moore, John C
  • Muri, Helene
  • Singh, Balwinder
  • Tilmes, Simone
  • Watanabe, Shingo
  • Yang, Shuting
  • Yoon, Jin-Ho

Abstract

Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earthʼs continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricke, Katharine L & Cole, Jason N S & Curry, Charles L & Irvine, Peter J & Ji, Duoying & Kravitz, Ben & MacMartin, Douglas G & Robock, Alan & Rasch, Philip J & Keith, David & Egill Kristjánsson, Jó, 2014. "A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering," Scholarly Articles 23936192, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrv:hksfac:23936192
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke, 2016. "Climate Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 99-118, October.
    2. Elnaz Roshan & Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 263-279, January.
    3. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2018. "Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-41.
    4. Harding, Anthony & Keith, David & Yang, Wenchang & Vecchi, Gabriel, 2023. "Impact of Solar Geoengineering on Temperature-Attributable Mortality," RFF Working Paper Series 23-23, Resources for the Future.
    5. Daniel Heyen & Thilo Wiertz & Peter Irvine, 2015. "Regional disparities in SRM impacts: the challenge of diverging preferences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 557-563, December.
    6. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    7. Jane A. Flegal & Aarti Gupta, 2018. "Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? Scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 45-61, February.
    8. Pfrommer, Tobias, 2018. "Diverging Regional Climate Preferences and the Assessment of Solar Geoengineering," Working Papers 0654, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    9. Anita Talberg & Peter Christoff & Sebastian Thomas & David Karoly, 2018. "Geoengineering governance-by-default: an earth system governance perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 229-253, April.

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