IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21355.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Solar Geoengineering, Uncertainty, and the Price of Carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Garth Heutel
  • Juan Moreno Cruz
  • Soheil Shayegh

Abstract

We consider the socially optimal use of solar geoengineering to manage climate change. Solar geoengineering can reduce damages from atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, potentially more cheaply than reducing emissions. If so, optimal policy includes less abatement than recommended by models that ignore solar geoengineering, and the price of carbon is lower. Solar geoengineering reduces temperature but does not reduce atmospheric or ocean carbon concentrations, and that carbon may cause damages apart from temperature increases. Finally, uncertainty over climate change and solar geoengineering alters the optimal deployment of solar geoengineering. We explore these issues with an analytical model and a numerical simulation. The price of carbon is 30%-45% lower than the price recommended in a model without geoengineering, depending on the parameterizations of geoengineering costs and benefits. Carbon concentrations are higher but temperature is lower when allowing for solar geoengineering. The optimal amount of solar geoengineering is more sensitive to climate uncertainty than is the optimal amount of abatement.

Suggested Citation

  • Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno Cruz & Soheil Shayegh, 2015. "Solar Geoengineering, Uncertainty, and the Price of Carbon," NBER Working Papers 21355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21355
    Note: EEE PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21355.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolstad, Charles D., 1996. "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Ricke, Katharine L & Cole, Jason N S & Curry, Charles L & Irvine, Peter J & Ji, Duoying & Kravitz, Ben & MacMartin, Douglas G & Robock, Alan & Rasch, Philip J & Keith, David & Egill Kristjánsson, Jó, 2014. "A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering," Scholarly Articles 23936192, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    4. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    5. Moreno-Cruz, Juan B., 2015. "Mitigation and the geoengineering threat," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 248-263.
    6. Luke M. Brander & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S. J. Tol & Pieter J. H. Van Beukering, 2012. "The Economic Impact Of Ocean Acidification On Coral Reefs," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-29.
    7. Kelly, David L. & Tan, Zhuo, 2015. "Learning and climate feedbacks: Optimal climate insurance and fat tails," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 98-122.
    8. J. Bickel & Shubham Agrawal, 2013. "Reexamining the economics of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 993-1006, August.
    9. Gramstad, Kjetil & Tjøtta, Sigve, 2010. "Climate Engineering: Cost benefit and beyond," Working Papers in Economics 05/10, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    10. Juan Moreno-Cruz & David Keith, 2013. "Climate policy under uncertainty: a case for solar geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 431-444, December.
    11. Gernot Klepper & Wilfried Rickels, 2014. "Climate Engineering: Economic Considerations and Research Challenges," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 270-289.
    12. Martin L. Weitzman, 2015. "A Voting Architecture for the Governance of Free-Driver Externalities, with Application to Geoengineering," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(4), pages 1049-1068, October.
    13. Hwang, In Chang, 2014. "A recursive method for solving a climate-economy model: value function iterations with logarithmic approximations," MPRA Paper 54782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Robert Lempert & Michael Schlesinger & Steven Bankes & Natalia Andronova, 2000. "The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 129-161, April.
    15. Baker, Erin & Solak, Senay, 2011. "Climate change and optimal energy technology R&D policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 442-454, September.
    16. Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke, 2016. "Climate Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 99-118, October.
    17. Aldy, Joseph Edgar, 2015. "Pricing Climate Risk Mitigation," Scholarly Articles 21150339, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    18. Scott Barrett, 2014. "Solar Geoengineering’s Brave New World: Thoughts on the Governance of an Unprecedented Technology," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 249-269.
    19. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    20. Marlos Goes & Nancy Tuana & Klaus Keller, 2011. "The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 719-744, December.
    21. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
    22. J. Pongratz & D. B. Lobell & L. Cao & K. Caldeira, 2012. "Crop yields in a geoengineered climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 101-105, February.
    23. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1999. "Bayesian learning, growth, and pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 491-518, February.
    24. Soheil Shayegh & Valerie Thomas, 2015. "Adaptive stochastic integrated assessment modeling of optimal greenhouse gas emission reductions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-15, January.
    25. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    26. Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke & David Keith, 2012. "A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 649-668, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Shayegh, Soheil & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Optimal Carbon Dioxide Removal in Face of Ocean Carbon Sink Feedback," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 266288, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Rafey, Will, 2023. "Mirage on the horizon: Geoengineering and carbon taxation without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Traeger, Christian P. & Meier, Felix D., 2023. "Uncertain Remedies to Fight Uncertain Consequences: The Case of Solar Geoengineering," RFF Working Paper Series 23-37, Resources for the Future.
    4. Wei Jin & Rick van der Ploeg & Lin Zhang, 2020. "Do We Still Need Carbon-Intensive Capital When Transitioning to a Green Economy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8745, CESifo.
    5. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    6. Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke, 2016. "Climate Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 99-118, October.
    7. Scott Knowles & Mark Skidmore, 2019. "A primer on weather and climate intervention for economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 7586, CESifo.
    8. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Joseph E. Aldy & Richard Zeckhauser, 2020. "Three prongs for prudent climate policy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(1), pages 3-29, July.
    10. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    11. Jin, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Lin, 2021. "Energy transition without dirty capital stranding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2016. "Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 19-45.
    2. Manoussi, Vassiliki & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Emmerling, Johannes, 2018. "Climate engineering under deep uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 207-224.
    3. Emmerling, Johannes & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Quantifying Non-cooperative Climate Engineering," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 266289, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Ahlvik, Lassi & Iho, Antti, 2018. "Optimal geoengineering experiments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 148-168.
    5. Garth Heutel & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Katharine Ricke, 2016. "Climate Engineering Economics," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 99-118, October.
    6. Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 395-415, February.
    7. Timo Goeschl & Daniel Heyen & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2013. "The Intergenerational Transfer of Solar Radiation Management Capabilities and Atmospheric Carbon Stocks," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(1), pages 85-104, September.
    8. Dovern, Jonas & Harnisch, Sebastian & Klepper, Gernot & Platt, Ulrich & Oschlies, Andreas & Rickels, Wilfried, 2015. "Radiation Management: Gezielte Beeinflussung des globalen Strahlungshaushalts zur Kontrolle des anthropogenen Klimawandels," Kiel Discussion Papers 549/550, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Moreno-Cruz, Juan B. & Smulders, Sjak, 2017. "Revisiting the economics of climate change: the role of geoengineering," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 212-224.
    10. repec:awi:wpaper:540 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Johannes Emmerling & Vassiliki Manoussi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2016. "Climate Engineering under Deep Uncertainty and Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2016.52, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Heyen, Daniel & Horton, Joshua & Moreno-Cruz, Juan, 2019. "Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 153-177.
    13. Rickels, Wilfried & Quaas, Martin F. & Ricke, Katharine & Quaas, Johannes & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Smulders, Sjak, 2020. "Who turns the global thermostat and by how much?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Todd Sandler, 2018. "Collective action and geoengineering," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-125, March.
    15. Tommi Ekholm & Hannele Korhonen, 2016. "Climate change mitigation strategy under an uncertain Solar Radiation Management possibility," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 503-515, December.
    16. Elnaz Roshan & Mohammad M. Khabbazan & Hermann Held, 2019. "Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 263-279, January.
    17. Traeger, Christian, 2021. "ACE - Analytic Climate Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Moreno-Cruz, Juan B. & Wagner, Gernot & Keith, David w., 2017. "An Economic Anatomy of Optimal Climate Policy," Working Paper Series rwp17-028, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Fabien Prieur & Martin Quaas & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "Mitigation strategies under the threat of solar radiation management," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    20. Daniel Heyen & Thilo Wiertz & Peter Irvine, 2015. "Regional disparities in SRM impacts: the challenge of diverging preferences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 557-563, December.
    21. Hwang, In Chang & Reynès, Frédéric & Tol, Richard S.J., 2017. "The effect of learning on climate policy under fat-tailed risk," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-18.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21355. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.