Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jonathan Treussard

    (Boston University Department of Economics)

  • Doriana Ruffino

    (Boston University Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper investigates strategic investment policies in a duopolistic continuous-time real options game. Our contribution is twofold, economic and methodological. The former is the recognition that, under fixed costs of investment and time-to-build, a firm's exercise of its capital-replacement option leads to a significant temporary reallocation of the firm's revenues to its competitor. The latter is the introduction of the early exercise premium representation as a valuable device for the characterization of optimal exercise policies in real options games. Assuming exogenous firm roles, we find that (i) as the leader installs its newly purchased capital, the follower's optimal investment policy displays a markedly convex and monotonically decreasing pattern over time, which finds its justification in the temporary transfer of the leader's consumer demand to its competitor, and (ii) once the leader has completed its investment process, the follower's trigger boundary -- i.e., the level of market demand that renders capital replacement optimal -- is time-independent. Moreover, we demonstrate that the follower's willingness to delay investment is enhanced by a longer time-to-build and a more volatile market demand, while it is weakened by a higher quality improvement upon replacement and by a higher expected growth in market demand. Finally, we study the probability that the follower mimics the leader's decision within the leader's time-to-build window. We conclude that, while a higher quality advancement upon investment and a higher growth rate in market demand make it more likely for the follower to exercise its investment option promptly, a higher market uncertainty and a longer time-to-build alter the probability of an investment cluster non-monotonically.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2007/paper_77.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 77.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:77

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
Fax: 1-314-444-8731
Email:
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bouis, Romain & Huisman, Kuno & Kort, Peter M., 2009. "Investment in oligopoly under uncertainty: The accordion effect," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12655, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
  3. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14.
  4. Richard J. Gilbert & Richard G. Harris, 1984. "Competition with Lumpy Investment," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(2), pages 197-212, Summer.
  5. Broadie, Mark & Detemple, Jerome, 1996. "American Option Valuation: New Bounds, Approximations, and a Comparison of Existing Methods," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1211-50.
  6. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
  7. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414.
  8. Stenbacka, Rune & Tombak, Mihkel M., 1994. "Strategic timing of adoption of new technologies under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-411, September.
  9. Peter Carr & Robert Jarrow & Ravi Myneni, 1992. "Alternative Characterizations Of American Put Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 87-106.
  10. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Pindyck, Robert S., 1992. "Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution," Working papers 3460-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Siim Kallast & Andi Kivinukk, 2003. "Pricing and Hedging American Options Using Approximations by Kim Integral Equations," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 361-383.
  12. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  13. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989. "Quality Ledders In The Theory Of Growth," Papers 148, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  14. Doriana Ruffino & Jonathan Treussard, 2006. "A Study of Inaction in Investment Games via the Early Exercise Premium Representation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-040, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  15. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty: Merging Real Options with Game Theory," Discussion Paper 2003-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1998. "A Further Analysis on Strategic Timing of Adoption of New Technologies under Uncertainty," Discussion Paper 1998-03, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed007:77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.