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Investment in oligopoly under uncertainty: The accordion effect

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  • Bouis, Romain
  • Huisman, Kuno J.M.
  • Kort, Peter M.

Abstract

This paper studies investments in new markets where more than two (anticipated) identical competitors are present. In case of three firms an accordion effect is detected: an exogenous demand shock results in a change of the wedge between investment thresholds of the first and second investor that is qualitatively different from the change of the wedge between the second and third investment threshold. Furthermore, it turns out that in the three-firm case the investment timing of the first investor lies in between the one and the two-firm case. These results are numerically extended to the n-firm case.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 320-331

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Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:27:y:2009:i:2:p:320-331

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551

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Keywords: Investment under uncertainty Real Options Competition;

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References

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  1. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2000. "On the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-225, February.
  2. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
  3. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M. & Pawlina, G. & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2003. "Strategic Investment Under Uncertainty: Merging Real Options with Game Theory," Discussion Paper 2003-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Grzegorz Pawlina & Peter M. Kort, 2006. "Real Options in an Asymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from Your Competitive Disadvantage?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, 03.
  5. Bouis, Romain & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2009. "Investment in oligopoly under uncertainty: The accordion effect," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 320-331, March.
  6. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
  7. Steven R. Grenadier, 2000. "Option Exercise Games: The Intersection Of Real Options And Game Theory," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(2), pages 99-107.
  8. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
  9. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  10. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  11. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
  12. Huisman, K.J.M., 2000. "Technology Investment: A Game Theoretic Real Options Approach," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84087, Tilburg University.
  13. Nielsen, Martin J., 2002. "Competition and irreversible investments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 731-743, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andreas Park & Lones Smith, 2008. "Caller Number Five and Related Timing Games," Working Papers tecipa-317, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  2. Eric Rasmusen & Young-Ro Yoon, 2008. "First versus Second-Mover Advantage with Information Asymmetry about the Size of New Markets," Working Papers 2008-15, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
  3. Jonathan Treussard & Doriana Ruffino, 2007. "Lumps and Clusters in Duopolistic Investment Games: An Early Exercise Premium Approach," 2007 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Bouis, R. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2006. "Investment in Oligopoly under Uncertainty: The Accordion Effect," Discussion Paper 2006-69, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Femminis, Gianluca & Martini, Gianmaria, 2011. "Irreversible investment and R&D spillovers in a dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1061-1090, July.
  6. Katsumasa Nishide & Kyoko Yagi, 2013. "Competition and the Bad News Principle in a Real Options Framework," KIER Working Papers 860, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Pereira, Paulo J. & Armada, Manuel Rocha, 2013. "Investment decisions under hidden competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 228-231.
  8. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
  9. Makoto Goto & Katsumasa Nishide & Ryuta Takashima, 2013. "Irreversible Investment under Competition with a Markov Switching Regime," KIER Working Papers 861, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Rossella Argenziano & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2012. "Clustering in N-Player Preemption Games," Economics Discussion Papers 741, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  11. Argenziano, Rossella & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp, 2012. "Inefficient entry order in preemption games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 445-460.
  12. Gianluca Femminis & Gianmaria Martini, 2008. "Irreversible R&D investment with inter-firm spillovers," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Teoria Economica e Metodi Quantitativi compila la segreteria, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  13. Chronopoulos, Michail & De Reyck, Bert & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2014. "Duopolistic competition under risk aversion and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(2), pages 643-656.
  14. Gianluca Femminis, 2012. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment-uncertainty relationship," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Teoria Economica e Metodi Quantitativi itemq1260, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  15. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.

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