Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michele Moretto

    (Department of Economics, University of Brescia)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of competition on the irreversible investment decisions under uncertainty as a generalization of the “real option” approach. We examine this issue with reference to an industry where each firm has only one investment opportunity which is completely irreversible and the product market reveals an inverted U-shape relationship between firm profits and industry size. That is, there are positive externalities for low level of the market size and negative externalities at high level of the market size. In the latter case, which corresponds to the traditional competitive industries, firms invest sequentially as market profitability develops. In the former case, which corresponds to industries in which investments are mutually beneficial, firms invest simultaneously after profitability of the market has developed sufficiently to capture all network benefits and to recover the option value of waiting. Put together, these extensions of the “real option” analysis, with strategic interactions, may help to explain both the cases of rapid and sudden developments such as the recent internet investments and the cases of prolonged start-up problems while waiting for the market to develop as the story of fax machines shows.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/Publication/NDL2003/NDL2003-032.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2003.32.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.32

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan
Phone: 0039-2-52036934
Fax: 0039-2-52036946
Email:
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Competition; network effect; real options;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lee, In Ho & Mason, Robin, 2001. "Market structure in congestible markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 809-818, May.
  2. Jianjun Miao, 2011. "Optimal Capital Structure and Industry Dynamics," CEMA Working Papers 440, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  3. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Khan, Beethika, 2003. "Adoption of New Technology," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3wg4p528, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Dixit, Avinash, 1995. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 327-350.
  5. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
  6. Bernheim, B. Douglas & Peleg, Bezalel & Whinston, Michael D., 1987. "Coalition-Proof Nash Equilibria I. Concepts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-12, June.
  7. Huisman, K.J.M., 2000. "Technology Investment: A Game Theoretic Real Options Approach," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84087, Tilburg University.
  8. R Amir & V E Lambson, 2003. "Entry, Exit, and Imperfect Competition in the Long Run," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0315, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  9. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  10. Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1999. "Effects of Strategic Interactions on the Option Value of Waiting," Discussion Paper 1999-92, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  11. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2010. "Environmental Innovation, War Of Attrition And Investment Grants," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 37-59.
  12. Ricardo J. Caballero & Robert S. Pindyck, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," NBER Working Papers 4160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Thijssen, J.J.J. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2002. "Symmetric Equilibrium Strategies in Game Theoretical Real Option Models," Discussion Paper 2002-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June.
  15. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, December.
  16. Lambson, Val Eugene, 1992. "Competitive Profits in the Long Run," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 125-42, January.
  17. Simon, Leo K. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 1987. "Extensive From Games in Continuous Time: Pure Strategies," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt03x115sh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  18. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
  19. Moretto, Michele, 2000. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and strategic behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-617, December.
  20. Adela Luque, 2002. "An option-value approach to technology adoption in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from microdata," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 543-568.
  21. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  22. Shy,Oz, 2001. "The Economics of Network Industries," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800952, October.
  23. Lim, Byeong-Lak & Choi, Munkee & Park, Myeong-Cheol, 2003. "The late take-off phenomenon in the diffusion of telecommunication services: network effect and the critical mass," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 537-557, December.
  24. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-50, September.
  25. Schoder, Detlef, 2000. "Forecasting the success of telecommunication services in the presence of network effects," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-200, June.
  26. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equilization in the Adoption of New Technology," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401, July.
  27. Baldursson, Fridrik M., 1998. "Irreversible investment under uncertainty in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 627-644, April.
  28. Michele Moretto, 2007. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0058, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  29. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
  30. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1991. "Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061414, December.
  31. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly: Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage," Discussion Paper 2001-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  32. Joseph Farrell & Garth Saloner, 1985. "Installed Base and Compatibility With Implications for Product Preannouncements," Working papers 385, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  33. repec:fth:tilbur:9992 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
  35. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
  36. Bartolini, Leonardo, 1993. "Competitive runs : The case of a ceiling on aggregate investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 921-948, June.
  37. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  38. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2001. "Irreversible Investment with Strategic Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Cesare Dosi & Michèle Moretto, 1998. "Auctioning green investment grants as a means of accelerating environmental innovation," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 83(1), pages 99-110.
  40. Nielsen, Martin J., 2002. "Competition and irreversible investments," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 731-743, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sergio Vergalli, 2006. "Dynamics in Immigration Community," Working Papers ubs0613, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  2. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2009. "Managing Migration through Conflicting Policies: an Option-theory Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 2731, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Femminis, Gianluca & Martini, Gianmaria, 2011. "Irreversible investment and R&D spillovers in a dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1061-1090, July.
  4. Sergio Vergalli, 2006. "The Role of Community in Migration Dynamics," Working Papers 2006.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. M. Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Migration dynamics," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 223-265, 04.
  6. Moretto, Michele, 2008. "Competition and irreversible investments under uncertainty," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-88, March.
  7. Luca Di Corato & Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Land Conversion Pace under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: too fast or too slow?," Working Papers 2011.84, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  8. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Managing Migration through Quotas: an Option-theory Perspective," Working Papers 2008.51, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Gianluca Femminis & Gianmaria Martini, 2008. "Irreversible R&D investment with inter-firm spillovers," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Teoria Economica e Metodi Quantitativi compila la segreteria, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  10. Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 362-389, December.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.