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Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies

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Author Info
Avinash Dixit

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Abstract

This paper analyses optimal irreversible investment policy when profits are subject to a multiplicative geometric Brownian motion shock. The marginal product of capital is increasing initially and decreasing thereafter. In the latter range, optimal policy is familiar: capacity is added gradually as the shock rises to a threshold where the expected return on the marginal unit is a required multiple of the cost of capital. The multiple reflects the option value of waiting. The optimal policy in the increasing marginal product range obeys the same multiple, now applied to the total return on the discrete increase in capital. Implications for economic growth, and suboptimal equilibria under external economies, are examined.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series with number 240.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stitep:240

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Keywords: Scale economies; uncertainty; optimal irreversible investment policy; capital; economic growth; profits.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Leahy, J.V., 1991. "The Optimality of Myopic Behaviour in a Competitive Model of Entry and Exit," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1566, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dixit, Avinash, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bartolini, Leonardo, 1993. "Competitive runs : The case of a ceiling on aggregate investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 921-948, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Skiba, A K, 1978. "Optimal Growth with a Convex-Concave Production Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 527-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Panteghini, 2002. "Asymmetric Taxation under Incremental and Sequential Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michele Moretto, 2007. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0058, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  3. Carlo Scarpa & Paolo Panteghini, 2001. "Incentives to (Irreversible) Investments Under Different Regulatory Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1998. "Expandability, Reversibility, and Optimal Capacity Choice," NBER Working Papers 6373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Luis H.R. Alvarez E., 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Incremental Capital Accumulation, and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 4, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michele Moretto & Paolo Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2003. "Investment Size and Firm's Value under Profit Sharing Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michele Moretto, 2003. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2003.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  8. Porteus, Evan L. & Angelus, Alexandar & Wood, Samuel C., 2000. "Optimal Sizing and Timing of Modular Capacity Expansions," Research Papers 1479r2, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Managing Migration through Quotas: an Option-theory Perspective," Working Papers 2008.51, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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