Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies

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Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies

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Avinash Dixit

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Avinash Kamalakar Dixit

Abstract

This paper analyses optimal irreversible investment policy when profits are subject to a multiplicative geometric Brownian motion shock. The marginal product of capital is increasing initially and decreasing thereafter. In the latter range, optimal policy is familiar: capacity is added gradually as the shock rises to a threshold where the expected return on the marginal unit is a required multiple of the cost of capital. The multiple reflects the option value of waiting. The optimal policy in the increasing marginal product range obeys the same multiple, now applied to the total return on the discrete increase in capital. Implications for economic growth, and suboptimal equilibria under external economies, are examined.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series with number 240.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stitep:240

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Article
- Dixit, Avinash, 1995. "Irreversible investment with uncertainty and scale economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 327-350. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Leahy, J.V., 1991. "The Optimality of Myopic Behaviour in a Competitive Model of Entry and Exit," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1566, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
Dixit, Avinash, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-32, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
- Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Skiba, A K, 1978. "Optimal Growth with a Convex-Concave Production Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 527-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1998. "Expandability, Reversibility, and Optimal Capacity Choice," NBER Working Papers 6373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Dixit, Avinash K. & Pindyck, Robert S. & Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research., 2003. "Expandability, reversibility, and optimal capacity choice," Working papers 97-006WP., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Managing Migration through Quotas: an Option-theory Perspective," Working Papers 2008.51, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
Porteus, Evan L. & Angelus, Alexandar & Wood, Samuel C., 2000. "Optimal Sizing and Timing of Modular Capacity Expansions," Research Papers 1479r2, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
Luis H.R. Alvarez E., 2006. "Irreversible Investment, Incremental Capital Accumulation, and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 4, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
Paolo Panteghini, 2002. "Asymmetric Taxation under Incremental and Sequential Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Paolo M. Panteghini, 2005. "Asymmetric Taxation under Incremental and Sequential Investment," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 761-779, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michele Moretto & Paolo Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2003. "Investment Size and Firm's Value under Profit Sharing Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Michele Moretto & Paolo M. Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2003. "Investment Size and Firm’s Value Under Profit Sharing Regulation," Working Papers 2003.80, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
Michele Moretto, 2007. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0058, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
Michele Moretto, 2003. "Competition and Irreversible Investments under Uncertainty," Working Papers 2003.32, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
Carlo Scarpa & Paolo Panteghini, 2001. "Incentives to (Irreversible) Investments Under Different Regulatory Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Panteghini, Paolo & Carlo Scarpa, 2002. "Incentives to (irreversible) investments under different regulatory regimes," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 154, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]

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