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Migration Dynamics

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  • Moretto, Michele
  • Vergalli, Sergio

Abstract

This paper tries to explain why most migration flows show some observable jumps in their processes, a phenomenon that seems to be sympathetic with the characteristic of irreversibility of migration. We present a real option model where the choice to migrate depends on both the differential wage between the host country and the country of origin, and on the probability of being fully integrated into the host country. The theoretical results show that the optimal migration decision of a single individual consists of waiting before migrating in a (coordinate) mass of individuals. The dimension of the migration flow depends on the behavioural characteristics of the ethnic groups: the more "sociable" they are, the larger the size of the wave and the lower the differential wage required. A second part of the paper is devoted to calibrating the model and simulating some migration flows to Italy in the last decade. The calibration is able to replicate the observable migration jumps in the short term. In particular, the calibrated model is able to conjecture the induced labour demand elasticity level of the host country and the behavioural rationale of the migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Moretto, Michele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2005. "Migration Dynamics," Knowledge, Technology, Human Capital Working Papers 12071, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemkt:12071
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12071
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Migration dynamics," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 223-265, April.
    2. Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Entry and Exit Strategies in Migration Dynamics," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 362-389, December.
    3. Deshingkar, Priya & Akter, Shaheen, 2009. "Migration and Human Development in India," MPRA Paper 19193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "Managing Migration through Quotas: an Option-theory Perspective," Working Papers 0805, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    5. Sergio Vergalli, 2008. "The Role of Community in Migration Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 547-567, September.
    6. Sergio Vergalli, 2006. "Dynamics in Immigration Community," Working Papers ubs0613, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    7. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Managing Migration Through Conflicting Policies: An Option‐Theory Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(3), pages 318-342, July.
    8. Christian Schmidt, 2011. "Commuting and Migration Decisions under Cost Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1481, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Elsner, Benjamin & Narciso, Gaia & Thijssen, Jacco J. J., 2013. "Migrant Networks and the Spread of Misinformation," IZA Discussion Papers 7863, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Theodore Palivos & Chong Yip, 2010. "Illegal immigration in a heterogeneous labor market," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 101(1), pages 21-47, September.
    11. Michele Moretto & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Managing Migration Through Conflicting Policies: An Option-Theory Perspective," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 318-342, July.
    12. Constantin Anghelache & Madalina – Gabriela Anghel & Alina – Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "The Effect of Migration on Labor Resources," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(3), pages 6-13, July.
    13. José Romero, 2013. "What circumstances lead a government to promote brain drain?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(2), pages 173-202, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor and Human Capital;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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