IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/94159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

South African unemployment in the post-financial crisis era: What are the determinants?

Author

Listed:
  • Mbekeni, Lutho
  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

High unemployment rates is one of the greatest economic challenges facing post-apartheid South African government over the past two decades and this problem has become more worrisome in the post-global financial crisis period. Our study examines the determinants of unemployment for the South African economy in the post-crisis period over a quarterly frequency period of 2009:Q1 to 2018:Q4. The determinants are examined for 4 classes of unemployment rates (total, male, female and youth) and we further partition possible unemployment determinants into fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic variables. The estimation results from the employed autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models find income tax, repo rates, economic growth, trade, investment, household debt and savings to be significant determinants of unemployment in the post-crisis South African economy and yet we note discrepancies of the significance of these determinants amongst different unemployment categories. Relevant policy implications are matched against our obtained empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mbekeni, Lutho & Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "South African unemployment in the post-financial crisis era: What are the determinants?," MPRA Paper 94159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94159/1/MPRA_paper_94159.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Prat, Julien & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2011. "Trade and unemployment: What do the data say?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 741-758, August.
    3. Geeta Kingdon & John Knight, 2007. "Unemployment in South Africa, 1995--2003: Causes, Problems and Policies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(5), pages 813-848, November.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Hartmut Egger & Udo Kreickemeier, 2017. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Labor Market Effects of Trade Liberalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade and Labor Markets Welfare, Inequality and Unemployment, chapter 10, pages 265-306, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Berger, Tino & Everaert, Gerdie, 2010. "Labour taxes and unemployment evidence from a panel unobserved component model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 354-364, March.
    7. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    8. Ludger Linnemann, 2010. "Unemployment, Government Spending and the Laffer Effect," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 227-250, June.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Saeid Mahdavi & Emmanuel Alanis, 2013. "Public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the American states: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2926-2937, July.
    11. Roberto Bande-Ramudo & Manuel Fernandez-Grela & Dolores Riveiro-Garcia, 2014. "Consumption, investment and unemployment: SVAR tests of the effects of changes in the consumption-saving pattern," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-7, December.
    12. Planas, Christophe & Roeger, Werner & Rossi, Alessandro, 2007. "How much has labour taxation contributed to European structural unemployment?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1359-1375, April.
    13. Ioannides, Yannis M., 1981. "Job search, unemployment and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 355-370.
    14. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    15. Willem Naude & Philip Serumaga-Zake, 2001. "An analysis of the determinants of labour force participation and unemployment in South Africa's North-West province," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 261-278.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. J.W. Fedderke & E. Schaling, 2005. "Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 79-92, March.
    18. Jim Malley & Thomas Moutos, 2001. "Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two “Continents”," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 79-99, March.
    19. Marco Guerrazzi, 2015. "Animal spirits, investment and unemployment: An old Keynesian view of the Great Recession," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 16(3), pages 343-358.
    20. D Hodge, 2002. "Inflation Versus Unemployment in South Africa: Is There a Trade‐Off?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(3), pages 193-204, March.
    21. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    22. Sherrill Shaffer & Bianca Zuniga, 2016. "Consumer debt and unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1250-1252, November.
    23. Bohringer, Christoph & Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2005. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-108, January.
    24. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Phillips curve: evidence from logistic smooth transition regression models," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 18-42.
    25. Dias, João, 2017. "Unemployment and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone: A k-means-r analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 108-117.
    26. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2010. "Capital investment and unemployment in Europe: Neutrality or not?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 492-496, March.
    27. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert, 2015. "Aggregate Unemployment and Household Unsecured Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, January.
    28. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Phillips Curve Now and Then," NBER Working Papers 3393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Abrams, Burton A, 1999. "The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 395-401, June.
    30. Hasan, Rana & Mitra, Devashish & Ranjan, Priya & Ahsan, Reshad N., 2012. "Trade liberalization and unemployment: Theory and evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 269-280.
    31. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    32. Dutt, Pushan & Mitra, Devashish & Ranjan, Priya, 2009. "International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 32-44, June.
    33. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    34. Goerke, Laszlo, 1997. "Taxes in an efficiency wage economy," Discussion Papers, Series II 335, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    35. Marina Marinkov & Jean‐pierre Geldenhuys, 2007. "Cyclical Unemployment And Cyclical Output: An Estimation Of Okun'S Coefficient For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 373-390, September.
    36. P. Burger & M. Marinkov, 2006. "The South African Phillips Curve: How Applicable Is The Gordon Model?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 172-189, June.
    37. Abdul Latif, 1996. "Can an increase in national saving reduce the level of unemployment in Australia?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 329-332.
    38. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    39. Grant, Angelia L., 2018. "The Great Recession and Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 291-300.
    40. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dhamija, Nidhi, 2019. "Trade Liberalization and Unemployment in India: A State Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 95001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chella, Namapsa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Long-run cointegration between foreign direct investment, direct investment and unemployment in South Africa," MPRA Paper 82371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Prat, Julien & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2011. "Trade and unemployment: What do the data say?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 741-758, August.
    4. Heid, Benedikt & Larch, Mario, 2012. "Migration, trade and unemployment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-40.
    5. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.
    6. Tino Berger & Freddy Heylen, 2011. "Differences in Hours Worked in the OECD: Institutions or Fiscal Policies?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1333-1369, October.
    7. Admasu Shiferaw & Degol Hailu, 2016. "Job creation and trade in manufactures: industry-level analysis across countries," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, December.
    8. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    9. Claire H. Hollweg & Daniel Lederman & Devashish Mitra, 2016. "Structural Reforms and Labour-market Outcomes: International Panel-data Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 925-963, July.
    10. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Pursuing the Philips curve in an African monarchy: A Swazi case study," Working Papers 1832, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    11. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2022. "Inflation dynamics in an emerging market: The case of South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 262-271.
    12. Chama CHIPETA & Daniel Francois MEYER, 2018. "Trade Openness, FDI and Exchange Rate Effects on Job Creation in South Africa's Tradable Sectors," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 197-212.
    13. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Pursuing the Phillips curve in an African monarchy: The Swazi case," MPRA Paper 89199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    15. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "The (Ir)Relevance Of The Nru For Policy Making: The Case Of Denmark," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 369-392, July.
    16. Marco Pinto & Jochen Michaelis, 2014. "International Trade and Unemployment—the Worker-selection Effect," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 226-252, May.
    17. Kavese Kambale & Phiri Andrew, 2020. "A Provincial Perspective of Nonlinear Okun’s Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 59-76, September.
    18. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and augmented Okun's Law in MENA zone," MPRA Paper 98953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Atif Awad & Ishak Youssof, 2016. "The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 938-958, October.
    20. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2020. "Labour market institutions in open economy: Sectoral reallocations, aggregate adjustments, and spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 814-845, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; determinants; ARDL; financial crisis; South Africa.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:94159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.