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Trade and Unemployment: What do the data say?

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  • Gabriel J Felbermayr

    ()

  • Julien Prat

    ()

  • Hans-Jörg Schmerer

    ()

Abstract

This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: in the long-run, higher trade openness is causally associated to a lower structural rate of unemployment. We es- tablish this fact using: (i) panel data from 20 OECD countries, (ii) cross-sectional data on a larger set of countries. The time structure of the panel data allows to deal with endogeneity concerns, whereas cross-sectional data make it possible to instru- ment openness by its geographical component. In both setups, we carefully purge the data from business cycle effects, include a host of institutional and geographical variables, and control for within-country trade. Our main finding is robust to various definitions of unemployment rates and openness measures. The preferred specification suggests that a 10 percent increase in total trade openness reduces unemployment by about one percentage point. Moreover, we show that openness affects unemployment mainly through its effect on TFP and that labor market institutions do not appear to condition the effect of openness.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 310/2009.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:310

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Web page: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/institution/institut-fuer-economics-11
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Related research

Keywords: international trade; real openness; unemployment; GMM models; IV esti- mation.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Hauptmann, Andreas & Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2012. "International trade and collective bargaining outcomes : evidence from German employer-employee data," IAB Discussion Paper 201207, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Egger, Hartmut & Egger, Peter & Kreickemeier, Udo, 2011. "Trade, wages, and profits," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 23, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  3. Marco de Pinto & Jochen Michaelis, 2011. "International Trade and Unemployment - the Worker-Selection Effect," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201127, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  4. Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2012. "FDI, skill-specific unemployment, and institutional spillover effects," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Julien Prat & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2009. "Trade and Unemployment: What do the data say?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 310/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  6. Schmerer, Hans-Jörg, 2012. "Foreign direct investment and search unemployment : Theory and evidence," IAB Discussion Paper 201204, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  7. Horst Feldmann, 2012. "Product Market Regulation and Labor Market Performance around the World," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 26(3), pages 369-391, 09.
  8. Heid, Benedikt & Larch, Mario, 2011. "Migration, trade and unemployment," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Wilhelm Kohler & Jens Wrona, 2010. "Offshoring Tasks, yet Creating Jobs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3019, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Éva Polgár & Julia Wörz, 2010. "No risk and some fun? Trade and wages in the enlarged European Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 127-163, May.
  11. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch, 2012. "International Trade and Unemployment: A Quantitative Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 4013, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Beker, Victor A., 2012. "A case study on trade liberalization: Argentina in the 1990s," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  13. Wolf-Heimo Grieben & Fuat Sener, 2012. "North-South Trade, Unemployment and Growth: What’s the Role of Labor Unions?," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  14. Kohler, Wilhelm & Wrona, Jens, 2011. "Offshoring tasks, yet creating jobs?," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 12, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.

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