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Uncertain future preferences and conservation

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Author Info
Chichilnisky, Graciela
Belratti, Andrea
Heal, Geoffrey

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Abstract

An important problem in environmental economics arises from te irreversibility of consuming or destroying certain resources. Extractive resources like oil are a clear example. Even for environmental resources the same seems to be true in a number of environmental cases, for example biodiversity, current climate conditions, or complex ecological systems. Irreversibility imposes a sever externality across different generations; future generations will suffer from the destruction of a unique asset like Amazonia, and it is not clear how such a loss could be compensated in terms of other goods. If such an asset is destroyed, then it is not possible to subsequently restore it. In contrast, if the asset is preserved, then it is possible to "use" the asset at a subsequent date. If there is uncertainty about future preferences or valuations, then preservation provides a type of insurance which is not available if the irreversible decision is carried out.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7912/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7912.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7912

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Related research
Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; ecological systems; externality; future; preferences; environmental; environment; irreversible; resources; natural resources;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting
Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kip Viscusi, W., 1985. "Environmental policy choice with an uncertain chance of irreversibility," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 28-44, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carson, Richard T. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 2006. "Contingent Valuation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 821-936 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kip Viscusi, W., 1988. "Irreversible environmental investments with uncertain benefit levels," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 147-157, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schmalensee, Richard, 1972. "Option Demand and Consumer's Surplus: Valuing Price Changes under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 813-24, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Krautkraemer, Jeffrey A, 1985. "Optimal Growth, Resource Amenities, and the Preservation of Natural Environments," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 153-70, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrea Beltratti & Graciela Chichilnisky & Geoffrey Heal, 1993. "Sustainable Growth and the Green Golden Rule," NBER Working Papers 4430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey & Beltratti, Andrea, 1995. "The Green Golden Rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 175-179, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Asheim, G.B. & Brekke, K.A., 1993. "Sustainability when Resource Management has Stochastic Consequences," Papers 01-93, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  10. Bohm, Peter, 1975. "Option Demand and Consumer's Surplus: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 733-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graciela Chichilnisky, 2009. "Avoiding Extinction: Equal Treatment of the Present and the Future," Working Papers 09-07, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Susanne Soretz, 2007. "Efficient Dynamic Pollution Taxation in an Uncertain Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 36(1), pages 57-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. El Hadji Fall, 2006. "The Worst-Case Scenario and Discounting the Very Long Term," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v06005, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  4. Frank Krysiak & Daniela Krysiak, 2006. "Sustainability with Uncertain Future Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 511-531, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1998. "The economics of global environmental risk," MPRA Paper 8812, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alain Le Kama & Katheline Schubert, 2004. "Growth, Environment and Uncertain Future Preferences," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 28(1), pages 31-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Loek Groot, 2004. "La consommation de ressources environnementales en incertitude," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 70(3), pages 255-286. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maria Cunha-E-Sá & Clara Costa-Duarte, 2000. "Endogenous Future Preferences and Conservation," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 16(2), pages 253-262, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frank Krysiak, 2009. "Sustainability and its relation to efficiency under uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 297-315, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. El Hadji Fall, 2006. "The Worst-Case Scenario and Discounting the Very Long Term," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00084074_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  11. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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