Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

AN ARBITRAGE-FREE APPROACH TO QUASI-OPTION VALUE; Proceedings of the Fifth Joint Conference on Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, June 17-18, 1996, Padova, Italy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Coggins, Jay S.
  • Ramezani, Cyrus A.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In the presence of uncertainty and irreversibility, dynamic decision problems should not be solved using expected net present value analysis. The right to delay a decision can be valuable. We show that the value of this right equals Arrow and Fisher’s (1974) quasi-option value. In a discrete model we show how to derive quasi-option value using methods from finance, methods that remove altogether the need to take expected values of future stochastic variables. Two main findings are presented. First, if the stochastic dynamic process underlying the problem is known, the Arrow and Fisher and Henry (1974) result that improper use of net present value leads to too much early development, is correct. Second, if the process is not known perfectly, their result can be incorrect in the sense that net present value methods lead to the correct outcome while the dynamic rule does not.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/14469
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy in its series Working Papers with number 14469.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 1996
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ags:umciwp:14469

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 332 Classroom Office Bldg, 1994 Buford Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108-6040
    Phone: (612) 625-8713
    Fax: (612) 625-6245
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cifap.umn.edu/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1987. "Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions," NBER Working Papers 1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
    3. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-12, December.
    4. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January.
    5. Dennis C. Cory & Bonnie Colby Saliba, 1987. "Requiem for Option Value," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    7. Paddock, James L & Siegel, Daniel R & Smith, James L, 1988. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 479-508, August.
    8. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
    9. Arrow, Kenneth J & Kurz, Mordecai, 1970. "Optimal Growth with Irreversible Investment in a Ramsey Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 331-44, March.
    10. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
    11. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June.
    12. Conrad, Jon M., 1995. "On the Option Value of Old-Growth Timber: The Case of the Headwaters Forest," Working Papers 127956, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Richard C. Bishop, 1982. "Option Value: An Exposition and Extension," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(1), pages 1-15.
    14. Bohm, Peter, 1975. "Option Demand and Consumer's Surplus: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 733-36, September.
    15. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
    16. Schmalensee, Richard, 1972. "Option Demand and Consumer's Surplus: Valuing Price Changes under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 813-24, December.
    17. Reed, William J., 1993. "The decision to conserve or harvest old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 45-69, August.
    18. Arrow, Kenneth J & Fisher, Anthony C, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 312-19, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umciwp:14469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.