IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/67690.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The future of the euro

Author

Listed:
  • Duwicquet, Vincent
  • Mazier, Jacques
  • Petit, Pascal
  • Saadaoui, Jamel

Abstract

The euro crisis illustrates the deficiencies of adjustment mechanisms in a monetary union characterized by a large heterogeneity. Exchange rate adjustments being impossible, few alternative mechanisms are available. Nevertheless, fiscal policy could play an active role. The chapter is organized as follow. In the first part, we give a new evaluation of these exchange rate misalignments inside the eurozone, using a FEER approach, and we discuss the structural character of these misalignments. In the second part, we analyse the deadlock of the actual European institutional framework and propose two alternative exit strategies, a first step towards a fiscal federalism or, on the opposite, a new monetary regime based on a multi-euro system.

Suggested Citation

  • Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Petit, Pascal & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "The future of the euro," MPRA Paper 67690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67690
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67690/1/MPRA_paper_67690.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    2. Seeun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels : A FEER Approach," Post-Print hal-02169238, HAL.
    3. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
    4. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
    5. Paul Davidson, 2004. "The future of the international financial system," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 591-605.
    6. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
    7. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Post-Print halshs-00593674, HAL.
    8. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "Interest Rates, Eurobonds and Intra-European Exchange Rate Misalignments: the Challenge of Sustainable Adjustments in the Eurozone," Working Papers of BETA 2015-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    10. Jacques Mazier & Pascal Petit, 2013. "In search of sustainable paths for the eurozone in the troubled post-2008 world," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(3), pages 513-532.
    11. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
    12. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    13. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    14. Jacques Mazier & Sophie Saglio, 2008. "Interdependency and adjustments in the European Union," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 17-44.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    16. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1993-2005.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    18. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2012. "Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB12-23, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Schettkat & Joep Damen, 2004. "Demand Patterns and Employment Structures an Aggregate Analysis," DEMPATEM Working Papers wp11, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
    2. Francesco Bogliacino & Matteo Lucchese & Mario Pianta, 2011. "Job creation in business services: innovation, demand, polarisation," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2011-04, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Piva, Mariacristina & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2005. "The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 141-157, March.
    4. Andrea Vaona & Mario Pianta, 2008. "Firm Size and Innovation in European Manufacturing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 283-299, March.
    5. Natália Barbosa & Ana Faria, 2008. "Technology adoption: does labour skill matter? Evidence from Portuguese firm-level data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 179-194, April.
    6. Massimiliano Bratti & Nicola Matteucci, 2005. "Is there skilled-biased technological change in Italian manufacturing? Evidence from firm-level data," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 48(1-2), pages 153-182.
    7. Torben Klarl, 2013. "Consumer's Environmental Awareness and the Role of (Green) Entrepreneurship: Lessons from Environmental Quality Competition and R&D Activities for Environmental Policy," Discussion Paper Series 321, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    8. Francesco Crespi & Mario Pianta, 2009. "Diversity in innovation and productivity in Europe," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Lionel Nesta (ed.), Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth, pages 259-275, Springer.
    9. Tommaso Antonucci & Mario Pianta, 2002. "Employment Effects of Product and Process Innovation in Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 295-307.
    10. Daniela Di Cagno & Valentina Meliciani, 2005. "Do inter-sectoral flows of services matter for productivity growth? an input/output analysis of OECD countries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 149-171.
    11. Nayak, Purusottam & Mishra, SK, 2009. "Structural Change in Meghalaya: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 15728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2010. "Innovation and Employment: a Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 799-809, July.
    13. Waheed, Abdul, 2012. "Employment effect of innovation: microdata evidence from Bangladesh and Pakistan," MERIT Working Papers 2012-024, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    14. Mario Pianta, 2018. "Technology and Employment: Twelve Stylised Facts for the Digital Age," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 189-225, June.
    15. Evangelista, Rinaldo & Savona, Maria, 2003. "Innovation, employment and skills in services. Firm and sectoral evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 449-474, December.
    16. Alessandro STERLACCHINI & Francesco VENTURINI, 2006. "Is Europe becoming a knowledge-driven economy? Evidence from EU developed regions," Working Papers 253, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    17. Simona Hašková & Marek Vochozka, 2018. "Duality in Cyclical Trends in European Union Confirmed," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(1), pages 21582440177, January.
    18. Rinaldo Evangelista & Maria Savona, 2002. "The Impact of Innovation on Employment in Services: Evidence from Italy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 309-318.
    19. Luc Soete, 2007. "From Industrial to Innovation Policy," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 273-284, December.
    20. Jonathan Michie & Christine Oughton & Mario Pianta, 2002. "Innovation and the Economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 253-264.
    21. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2011. "Engines of growth. Innovation and productivity in industry groups," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 41-53, February.
    22. Kinsella, Stephen, 2019. "Visualising economic crises using accounting models," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2018. "Dealing with the consequences of exchange rate misalignments for macroeconomic adjustments in the EMU," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 737-767, November.
    2. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2015. "Interest Rates, Eurobonds and Intra-European Exchange Rate Misalignments: the Challenge of Sustainable Adjustments in the Eurozone," Working Papers of BETA 2015-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Duwicquet, Vincent & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," MPRA Paper 48697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    5. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 383-398.
    6. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
    7. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2014. "Interest rates, eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments: the challenge of sustainable adjustments in the eurozone," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01089208, HAL.
    8. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Interest rates, Eurobonds and intra-European exchange rate misalignments," Post-Print hal-01359820, HAL.
    10. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution," Post-Print hal-02169241, HAL.
    11. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," Post-Print halshs-00861163, HAL.
    12. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," MPRA Paper 42554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00829460 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Post-Brexit FEER," CEPN Working Papers hal-01394814, HAL.
    15. Jamel Saadaoui, 2016. "Post-Brexit FEER," Working Papers hal-01394814, HAL.
    16. Jamel Saadaoui, 2017. "Internal Devaluations and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: New Evidences and Perspectives for the EMU," Working Papers halshs-01633389, HAL.
    17. Jamel Saadaoui & Jacques Mazier & Nabil Aflouk, 2013. "On the determinants of exchange rate misalignments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1608-1610, December.
    18. Jamel Saadaoui, 2017. "Internal Devaluations and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: New Evidences and Perspectives for the EMU," CEPN Working Papers halshs-01633389, HAL.
    19. Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates?," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00750551, HAL.
    20. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2016. "The Fisher effect in the presence of time-varying coefficients," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 495-511.
    21. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829460 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Crisis; Exchange Rate Misalignments; Fallback Strategies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67690. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.