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Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution : comment s'ajuster en union monétaire

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  • Vincent Duwicquet

    ()
    (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS : UMR8019 - Université Lille I - Sciences et technologies)

  • Jacques Mazier

    ()
    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7234 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC))

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    ()
    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7234 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité (USPC))

Abstract

La crise de la zone euro illustre les carences des mécanismes d'ajustement dans une union monétaire caractérisée par une forte hétérogénéité. Cette situation reflète un diagnostic simple. Au niveau de l'ensemble de la zone, l'euro est proche de son taux d'équilibre. Mais l'euro est fortement surévalué pour les pays d'Europe du Sud, y compris la France, et largement sous-évalué pour les pays d'Europe du Nord, en particulier l'Allemagne (Jeong, Mazier et Saadaoui, 2010). Dans un premier temps, cet article donne une évaluation de ces désajustements de change au sein de la zone euro, en utilisant une approche FEER. De plus, en utilisant des données de panel sur la période 1994-2010, nous confirmons que les désajustements de taux de change ont divergé, reflétant des évolutions insoutenables. Enfin, nous estimons les transferts équivalents en % du PIB induits par ces désajustements pour les différents pays européens. Dans un second temps, nous utilisons une modélisation " stock-flux cohérente " à deux pays d'une union monétaire dans la lignée de Godley et Lavoie (2007) et de Duwicquet et Mazier (2010). Un budget fédéral est introduit avec des dépenses fédérales et des transferts sociaux financés par des impôts fédéraux et par l'émission d'euro-obligations. Le rôle stabilisateur d'un tel budget fédéral est confirmé face à des chocs asymétriques au sein de l'union. Parallèlement, le rôle stabilisateur d'euro-obligations destinées à des projets d'investissement est illustré.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series CEPN Working Papers with number halshs-00735142.

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Date of creation: 25 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cepnwp:halshs-00735142

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Keywords: Désajustements de taux de change; ajustements; union monétaire; crise de la zone euro;

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