Forecasting water consumption in Spain using univariate time series models

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Forecasting water consumption in Spain using univariate time series models

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Caiado, Jorge

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Jorge Caiado

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the daily water demand forecasting performance of double seasonal univariate time series models (Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and GARCH) based on multi-step ahead forecast mean squared errors. We investigate whether combining forecasts from different methods and from different origins and horizons could improve forecast accuracy. We use daily data for water consumption in Spain from 1 January 2001 to 30 June 2006.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6610.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6610

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-01-12 (All new papers)
NEP-FOR-2008-01-12 (Forecasting)

References listed on IDEAS
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Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Taylor, James W., 2006. "Density forecasting for the efficient balancing of the generation and consumption of electricity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 707-724. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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