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Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale
[Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comparative Historical Analysis to Assess the Multilateral Trading System]

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Author Info

  • Nenci, Silvia

Abstract

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in fostering international trade. The distinctive feature of this study is the use of a long term data set concerning tariffs and trade of twenty-three countries (which account for over 60 per cent of world trade of the entire period) for the 1870-2000 time span. Using times series and panel data analyses the author shows as the existence of a long run relationship between tariffs reduction and trade growth at the world level is quantitatively noteworthy exclusively in the period before the Second World War while it weakens starting from 1950. The empirical results do not controvert the role that the GATT/WTO system has played in the tariff reduction process but underline as its main effect has been linked to the creation of a rule-based environment governing global trade relations, through which uncertainty was reduced and the spread of best practices promoted.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 645.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:645

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Related research

Keywords: Tariffs; world trade; multilateral trading system; Gatt/WTO; time series; ECM;

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References

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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew Rose, 2005. "Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 7-22, January.
  3. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Douglas A. Irwin, 1994. "The GATT's Contribution to Economic Recovery in Post-War Western Europe," NBER Working Papers 4944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, 1994. "What does liberalisation do for exports and growth?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 152-174, March.
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  7. Ray, Edward John, 1981. "Tariff and Nontariff Barriers to Trade in the United States and Abroad," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 161-68, May.
  8. Leith, James Clark & Reuber, Grant L, 1969. "The Impact of the Industrial Countries' Tariff Structure on Their Imports of Manufactures from Less-Developed Areas: A Comment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 36(141), pages 75-80, February.
  9. Feenstra, R.C., 1995. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy," Department of Economics 95-10, California Davis - Department of Economics.
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  13. Jakob B. Madsen, 2001. "Trade Barriers and the Collapse of World Trade During the Great Depression," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 848-868, April.
  14. Abdelhak S. Senhadji & Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 2.
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  16. O'Rourke, K, 1997. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Papers 97/18, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  17. John H. Coatsworth & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "The Roots of Latin American Protectionism: Looking Before the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 8999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bela Balassa, 1965. "Tariff Protection in Industrial Countries: An Evaluation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 573.
  19. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?," NBER Working Papers 9347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
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  22. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
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