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Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

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  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large dataset covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25- year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral dataset. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4246.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4246

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Keywords: bilateral; coefficient; data; empirical; flow; international; panel; variation; volatility;

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References

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?," Working Papers 182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  3. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Cited by:
  1. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE.
  2. Mark Copelovitch & David Ohls, 2012. "Trade, institutions, and the timing of GATT/WTO accession in post-colonial states," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 81-107, March.
  3. Coulibaly, Souleymane, 2009. "Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements: a Semi-parametric Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 709-743.
  4. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  6. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Silvia Nenci, 2009. "Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0110, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  8. Agostino, Maria Rosaria & Aiello, Francesco & Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "Analyzing the Impact of Trade Preferences in Gravity Models. Does Aggregation Matter?," Working Papers 7294, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  9. Nenci, Silvia, 2005. "Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale
    [Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comp
    ," MPRA Paper 645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
  11. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
  12. Pascal Ghazalian & Ryan Cardwell, 2010. "Did the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture Affect Trade Flows? An Empirical Investigation for Meat Commodities," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 331-344, November.
  13. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "EU and developing countries: an analysis of preferential margins on agricultural trade flows," Working Papers 7219, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  14. Lavallée, Emmanuelle, 2005. "Governance, Corruption and Trade : A North-South Approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4090, Paris Dauphine University.
  15. Balding, Christopher, 2011. "A Re-examination of the Relation between Democracy and International Trade The Case of Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. Ildikó Virág-Neumann, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO for Europe," Proceedings-7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2009), in: György Kadocsa (ed.), 7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking MEB 2009-Proceedings, pages 381-390 Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
  17. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2013. "E(M)U effects in global cross-border banking," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 91-93.
  18. Witold J. Henisz & Edward D. Mansfield, 2004. "Votes and Vetoes: The Political Determinants of Commercial Openness," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-712, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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