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Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

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  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large dataset covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25- year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral dataset. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4246.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4246

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Keywords: bilateral; coefficient; data; empirical; flow; international; panel; variation; volatility;

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References

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  1. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2013. "E(M)U effects in global cross-border banking," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 91-93.
  2. Ildikó Virág-Neumann, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO for Europe," Proceedings-7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2009), in: György Kadocsa (ed.), 7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking MEB 2009-Proceedings, pages 381-390 Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
  3. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Lavallée, Emmanuelle, 2005. "Governance, Corruption and Trade : A North-South Approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4090, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Silvia Nenci, 2009. "Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0110, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  6. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  7. Pascal Ghazalian & Ryan Cardwell, 2010. "Did the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture Affect Trade Flows? An Empirical Investigation for Meat Commodities," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 331-344, November.
  8. Coulibaly, Souleymane, 2009. "Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements: a Semi-parametric Approach," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 709-743.
  9. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," Development Economics Working Papers 21823, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  10. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "EU and developing countries: an analysis of preferential margins on agricultural trade flows," Working Papers 7219, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  11. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  12. Mark Copelovitch & David Ohls, 2012. "Trade, institutions, and the timing of GATT/WTO accession in post-colonial states," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 81-107, March.
  13. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  14. Witold J. Henisz & Edward D. Mansfield, 2004. "Votes and Vetoes: The Political Determinants of Commercial Openness," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-712, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  15. Nenci, Silvia, 2005. "Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale
    [Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comp
    ," MPRA Paper 645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Agostino, Maria Rosaria & Aiello, Francesco & Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "Analyzing the Impact of Trade Preferences in Gravity Models. Does Aggregation Matter?," Working Papers 7294, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  17. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
  18. Balding, Christopher, 2011. "A Re-examination of the Relation between Democracy and International Trade The Case of Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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