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Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

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  • Andrew Rose

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Abstract

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-005-5329-9
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 16 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 7-22

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:7-22

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: volatility; empirical; data; bilateral; coefficient of variation; panel; international; flow;

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References

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  1. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mark Copelovitch & David Ohls, 2012. "Trade, institutions, and the timing of GATT/WTO accession in post-colonial states," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 81-107, March.
  2. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  3. Ildikó Virág-Neumann, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO for Europe," Proceedings-7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking (MEB 2009), in: György Kadocsa (ed.), 7th International Conference on Management, Enterprise and Benchmarking MEB 2009-Proceedings, pages 381-390 Óbuda University, Keleti Faculty of Business and Management.
  4. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
  5. Lavallée, Emmanuelle, 2005. "Governance, Corruption and Trade : A North-South Approach," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4090, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," Development Economics Working Papers 21823, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  7. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Pascal Ghazalian & Ryan Cardwell, 2010. "Did the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture Affect Trade Flows? An Empirical Investigation for Meat Commodities," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 331-344, November.
  9. Coulibaly, Souleymane, 2007. "Evaluating the trade effect of developing regional trade agreements : a semi-parametric approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4220, The World Bank.
  10. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Nenci, Silvia, 2005. "Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale
    [Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comp
    ," MPRA Paper 645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2013. "E(M)U effects in global cross-border banking," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 91-93.
  13. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Jyun-Yi & Yau, Ruey, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 770-783.
  14. Witold J. Henisz & Edward D. Mansfield, 2004. "Votes and Vetoes: The Political Determinants of Commercial Openness," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-712, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  15. Balding, Christopher, 2011. "A Re-examination of the Relation between Democracy and International Trade The Case of Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. Silvia Nenci, 2009. "Tariff liberatization and the growth of word trade: A comparative historiocal analysis to evaluate the multilateral trading system," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0110, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  17. Agostino, Maria Rosaria & Aiello, Francesco & Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "Analyzing the Impact of Trade Preferences in Gravity Models. Does Aggregation Matter?," Working Papers 7294, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  18. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "EU and developing countries: an analysis of preferential margins on agricultural trade flows," Working Papers 7219, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.

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