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A Simple Interest Rate Model with Unobserved Components: The Role of the Interbank Reference Rate

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  • Muto, Ichiro

Abstract

In this study, we theoretically investigate the potential role of the reference rate in stabilizing or destabilizing an interbank market with an environment where individual banks cannot fully identify the nature of underlying shocks affecting their interbank transactions. We show that a noise-free reference rate based on a sufficient number of sample transactions can help to make the market interest rate less volatile, whereas the stabilizing effects of the reference rate are significantly reduced if the reported interest rates contain some noisy components. Nevertheless, by increasing the number of sample transactions reflected in the reference rate, the adverse effects of the noise can be mitigated (or eliminated) provided the noise is idiosyncratic to individual transactions. However, if the noise is common to multiple transactions, then the adverse effects of the noisy reference rate cannot be reduced simply by increasing the number of sample transactions. This suggests that the noise in the interest rates reported by just a few of large banks can end up making the entire market more volatile, thereby impairing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43220.

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Date of creation: 11 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43220

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Keywords: Interbank Market; Reference Rate; LIBOR; Imperfect Information; Financial Stability; Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy;

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  2. Heider, F. & Hoerova, M. & Holthausen, C., 2009. "Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads: The Role of Counterparty Risk," Discussion Paper 2009-40 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  3. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, 08.
  4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  5. Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2011. "Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1114, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  6. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008. "A black swan in the money market," Working Paper Series 2008-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Muto, Ichiro, 2013. "Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
  8. Jacob Gyntelberg & Philip Wooldridge, 2008. "Interbank rate fixings during the recent turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  9. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 21-44, Fall.
  10. Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. & Kraten, Michael & Metz, Albert D. & Seow, Gim S., 2012. "Libor manipulation?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 136-150.
  11. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen EJjerksov & Natacha Valla, . "Manipulation in Money Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
  12. Muto, Ichiro & Sudo, Nao & Yoneyama, Shunichi, 2013. "Productivity Slowdown in Japan’s Lost Decades: How Much of It is Attributed to Financial Factors?," Dynare Working Papers 28, CEPREMAP.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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