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The effects of school quality on fertility in a transition economy

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  • Vasilaky, Kathryn

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of school quality on fertility in a transition country. It aims to explain the slowing fertility and shrinking rural sector of a post Soviet country, Ukraine, through the decline in the quality of public services, in particular, school quality. It builds on earlier work of Rosenzweig (1982), which tests for the effects of a change in the price of child quality, measured here by school quality. Estimates from a generalized Poisson model of fertility show that school quality has a positive and significant effect on household fertility. Specifically, a 10 % increase in teacher quality is associated with a 3+% rise in fertility. This positive relationship between education and fertility distinguishes itself from the negative relationship that is commonly observed between these two factors. It also suggests that Ukraine should reconsider its population policies that are aimed at increasing fertility, from short term income transfers for rural families to long term investments into the quality and equality of their education system.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 38965.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38965

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Keywords: school quality; transition economy; quality quantity tradeoff;

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References

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  1. Mehmet A. ULUBASOGLU & Buly CARDAK, 2005. "International Comparisons Of Rural-Urban Educational Attainment: Data And Determinants," Economics Series 2005_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  2. Ueli Grob & Stefan C. Wolter, 2005. "Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1555, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2004. "Returns to Schooling in Russia and Ukraine: A Semiparametric Approach to Cross-Country Comparative Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Hartmut Lehmann & Norberto Pignatti & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2005. "The Incidence and Cost of Job Loss in the Ukrainian Labor Market," CERT Discussion Papers 0504, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  5. Louise Grogan, 2006. "An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 363-397.
  6. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-40, January.
  7. Betts, Julian R, 1995. "Does School Quality Matter? Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 231-50, May.
  8. Behrman, Jere R & Birdsall, Nancy, 1983. "The Quality of Schooling: Quantity Alone is Misleading," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 928-46, December.
  9. Lorraine Dearden & Javier Ferri & Costas Meghir, 2002. "The Effect Of School Quality On Educational Attainment And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 1-20, February.
  10. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2005. "New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 11835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2009. "Fertility, Money Holdings, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 75-99, March.
  12. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  13. Weiren Wang & Felix Famoye, 1997. "Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-283.
  14. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1982. "Educational Subsidy, Agricultural Development, and Fertility Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 67-88, February.
  15. Huffman, Wallace E. & Orazem, Peter F., 2007. "Agriculture and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Farmers, Schooling and Nutrition," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.
  16. Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 641-680.
  17. Osipian, Ararat, 2008. "Economic Growth—Human Capital Nexus in Post-Soviet Ukraine, 1989-2009," MPRA Paper 7731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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