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An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

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  • Louise Grogan

Abstract

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994-2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 363-397

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:363-397

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References

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  1. Andrienko, Yuri & Guriev, Sergei, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 3835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Irina Denisova & Stanislav Kolenikov & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2000. "Child Benefits and Child Poverty," Working Papers w0006, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  3. Ermisch, John F, 1988. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December.
  5. Jacob Mincer & Solomon Polachek, 1974. "Family Investments in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," NBER Chapters, in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 76-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Namkee Ahn & Pedro Mira, . "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Working Papers 99-09, FEDEA.
  7. Mroz, Thomas A & Popkin, Barry M, 1995. "Poverty and the Economic Transition in the Russian Federation," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-31, October.
  8. Siv S. Gustafsson & Shirley Dex & C├ęcile M. M. P. Wetzels & Jan Dirk Vlasblom, 1996. "Women`s labor force transitions in connection with childbirth: A panel data comparison between Germany, Sweden and Great Britain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 223-246.
  9. Ermisch, John F, 1990. "European Women's Employment and Fertility Again," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 3-18, April.
  10. Phillip B. Levine & Douglas Staiger, 2002. "Abortion as Insurance," NBER Working Papers 8813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Atkinson,Anthony Barnes & Micklewright,John, 1992. "Economic Transformation in Eastern Europe and the Distribution of Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521433297, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Aliaksandr Amialchuk & Maksim Yemelyanau & Katerina Lisenkova & Mykhaylo Salnykov, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Fertility in Belarus: a Micro-Data Analysis," BEROC Working Paper Series 13, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
  2. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Kazuhiro Kumo, 2009. "Determinants of Childbirth in Russia: A Micro-Data Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-104, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  4. Kumo, Kazuhiro, 2012. "Determinants of Childbirth in Russia : A Micro-data Approach," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(1), pages 49-69, June.
  5. Svitlana Maksymenko, 2006. "Fertility, Money Holdings, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ukraine," Working Papers 296, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2008.
  6. Vasilaky, Kathryn, 2011. "The effects of school quality on fertility in a transition economy," MPRA Paper 38965, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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