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An Economic Examination of the Post-Transition Fertility Decline in Russia

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Author Info
Louise Grogan

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Abstract

This article uses longitudinal household data to examine the decline in the Total Fertility Rate in Russia from 2.0 in 1989 to 1.3 in 2001. Using individual and community-level panel data spanning the 1994--2001 era, the decline in household income can account for about a 28% decline in yearly birth propensities amongst married couples. The relationship between educational attainment and fertility appears to have changed markedly in the post-Soviet era. More educated individuals now have greater propensities to bear children than their vocationally educated counterparts within marriage. Female labour force participation is not strongly associated with fertility decisions of married women in the post-Soviet era, and local provisions for children also do not have important effects. These results suggest that improving real family incomes will be more important in raising fertility rates than improving child benefits levels or increasing community childcare provisions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 363-397
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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:363-397

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  1. Irina Denisova & Stanislav Kolenikov & Ksenia Yudaeva, 2000. "Child Benefits and Child Poverty," Working Papers w0006, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
  2. Ermisch, John F, 1990. "European Women's Employment and Fertility Again," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 3-18, April.
  3. Mincer, Jacob & Polachek, Solomon, 1974. "Family Investment in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages S76-S108, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mroz, Thomas A & Popkin, Barry M, 1995. "Poverty and the Economic Transition in the Russian Federation," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 1-31, October.
  5. Ermisch, John F, 1988. "Purchased Child Care, Optimal Family Size and Mother's Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 238, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia: evidence from panel data," Working Papers w0027, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1985. "The Demand for and Supply of Births: Fertility and Its Life Cycle Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 992-1015, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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