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An Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Aggregates in Nigeria (1986- 2003)

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Adebiyi, Michael Adebayo
Abstract

The paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange intervention in the Nigerian foreign exchange market using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach. Quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2003:4 are used and a number of statistical tools are employed to verify this hypothesis. The study examines stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Phillip Perron (PP) test. This is followed by performing cointegration test using Johansen technique. The existence of co-integration motivates us to estimate the error correction model for broad money, M2. The overall finding from all the techniques employed is that foreign exchange intervention in Nigeria is sterilized because the cumulative aid, which constitute part of foreign exchange inflows, and net foreign assets variables, which are proxies for intervention, are not significant. Thus, paper concludes by recommending, among others, that the use of stock of external reserves to support the exchange rate through increased funding of the foreign exchange market should be encouraged.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3817.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3817

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Related research
Keywords: Nigeria; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Co-integration and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dominguez, Kathryn Mary, 1990. "Market responses to coordinated central bank intervention," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-163, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  9. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "On the effects of sterilized intervention : An analysis of weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-150, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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