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Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth

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  • Ikefuji, Masako
  • Horii, Ryo

Abstract

Using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input (e.g., fossil fuels) intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters. We find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time. The long-term rate of economic growth follows an inverted V-shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax, and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy of those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs. Unavailability of insurance can accelerate or decelerate the growth-maximizing speed of the tax increase depending on the relative significance of the risk premium and precautionary savings effects. Welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy, especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37825.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37825

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Keywords: human capital; global warming; environmental tax; nonbalanced growth path; precautionary saving; risk premium;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48.
  2. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl, 2013. "Naturally Negative: The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 4439, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ryo Horii & Masako Ikefuji, 2014. "Environment and Growth," Working Papers 2014.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Lucas Bretschger & Christos Karydas, 2013. "Optimum Growth and Carbon Policies with Lags in the Climate System," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 13/184, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  5. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2014. "Growth and Mitigation Policies with Uncertain Climate Damage," CEEES Paper Series CE3S-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
  6. AKAO Ken-Ichi & SAKAMOTO Hiroaki, 2013. "A Theory of Disasters and Long-run Growth," Discussion papers 13061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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