Price and Income Elasticities of Demand for Oil Products in African Member Countries of OPEC: A Cointegration Analysis
AbstractThis paper analyses the demand for petroleum products in African member countries of OPEC namely Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria over the period of 1980-2007. For this purpose, econometric models based on time series data are generated for individual products so as to capture product specific factors affecting demand. In doing so, the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long run relationship among the variables. Four specifications such as total petroleum product demand function, gasoline demand function, diesel demand function and kerosene demand functions have been estimated. The review of trends in the consumption and real prices of the various products suggest that demand for oil products has risen fast due to fast rise in income levels of individuals in these countries as compared to price level. Furthermore, results of estimation show mixed evidence about cointegration between the variables in all the countries studied. The evidence from the estimates show that the diesel demand specification provided satisfactory results in terms of producing expected signs than other specifications. The results for the kerosene model was the least satisfactory as most of the coefficients were found with unexpected signs. Finally the overall result indicates that demand for oil products are more responsive to changes in income than the real prices, both in the short and long run. This result is consistent with the previous studies on developing countries. Finally, the policy implication for result show the need for diversification, increase refining capacity and demand management policies in these countries to promote energy efficiency, conservation as well as discourage cross border smuggling of products and encourage private investment into the oil sector.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37390.
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2012
Date of revision: 28 Feb 2012
Petroleum product demand; ARDL procedure;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2012-03-28 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-03-28 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENE-2012-03-28 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
- Mete Feridun & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Fighting Terrorism: Are Military Measures Effective? Empirical Evidence From Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 193-205.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Iwayemi, Akin & Adenikinju, Adeola & Babatunde, M. Adetunji, 2010. "Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-85, January.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and the role of energy consumption in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2011.
- Engsted, T & Bentzen, J, 1997. "Dynamic Modelling of Energy Demand : A Guided Tour Through the Jungle of Unit Roots and Cointegration," Papers 97-6, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
- Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Blake, Andon, 2009. "Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1552-1560, April.
- Martin de Wit & Matthew Kuperus Heun & Douglas J Crookes, 2013. "An overview of salient factors, relationships and values to support integrated energy-economic systems dynamic modelling," Working Papers 02/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.