Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility
AbstractFollowing the liberalization of financial markets, Goldstein and Razin (2006) show that there is an information based trade-off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment, our paper examines the causality relations between foreign direct investment and volatility of foreign portfolio investment. Utilizing monthly and quarterly data set of Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey, volatility of portfolio investments, which indicated evidence of ARCH effects for all four countries, have been estimated by best fitting GARCH (p,q) models. Further, potential causality has been examined by Granger (1969), Sims (1972) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test methods. Results indicated that, for Russia and Turkey foreign direct investment has a significant cause on portfolio investment volatility. However for Czech Republic and Poland, there is no such significant relationship has been found. Finally further investigation of a possible structural break due to EU membership could not provide such evidence for Czech Republic and Poland in related variables.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34352.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Foreign Direct Investment; Foreign Portfolio Investment; Eastern Europe; Causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Gabriele & Korkut Baratav & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Instability and Volatility of Capital Flows to Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 1031-1056, 08.
- Robert E. Lipsey, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yamin Ahmad & Pietro Cova & Rodrigo Harrison, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment versus Portfolio Investment : A Global Games Approach," Working Papers 05-03, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
- Robert E. Lipsey, 2000.
"The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
7094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Lipsey & Robert C. Feenstra & Carl H. Hahn & George N. Hatsopoulos, 1999. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in International Capital Flows," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 307-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Albuquerque, Rui, 2003.
"The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December.
- Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "The Composition of International Capital Flows: Risk Sharing Through Foreign Direct Investment," International Finance 0405004, EconWPA.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996.
"Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
- V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., . "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Working Papers ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Strazicich, Mark C. & Co, Catherine Y. & Lee, Junsoo, 2001. "Are shocks to foreign investment in developing countries permanent or temporary? : Evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 405-412, March.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000.
"Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns,"
in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1998. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 6669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
- Fernando Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2004.
"Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?,"
Economics Working Papers
862, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Fernando A. Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 328, Central Bank of Chile.
- Frank Lichtenberg & Bruno van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 1996. "International R&D Spillovers: A Re-Examination," NBER Working Papers 5668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Paolo Mauro & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect from Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
- Sula, Ozan & Willett, Thomas D., 2006. "Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.