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Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

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Abstract

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks (“crises”) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) – the most important one – shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 862.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:862

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Keywords: Capital flows; emerging countries; volatility; crises; contagion; persistence;

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References

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-894, 04.
  2. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Working Papers 308, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2004. "Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 265, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. repec:bge:wpaper:185 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2007. "Modeling the impact of real and financial shocks on Mercosur: the role of the exchange rate regime," Post-Print halshs-00142506, HAL.
  3. Fernando A. Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Rethinking the Effects of Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 16640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Borkhuu Gotovsuren & Tsenddorj Dorjpurev, 2012. "Financial Contagion and Volatile Capital Flows," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ56, June.
  6. Gozgor, Giray & Erzurumlu, Yaman O., 2010. "Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility," MPRA Paper 34352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(6), pages 29-54, November.
  8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:3:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Partha Sen, 2007. "Capital Inflows, Financial Repression And Macroeconomic Policy In India Since The Reforms," Working papers 157, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  10. Rogelio V. Mercado & Cyn-Young Park, 2011. "What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and their Volatilities in Developing Asia?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 655-680, December.
  11. Remberto Rhenals Monterroso & Alejandro Torres García, 2007. "Volatilidad de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo: evidencia para América Latina, 1970-2002," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 67, pages 9-42, Julio-Dic.
  12. repec:nbr:nberwo:13194 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.

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