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Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Bussière, Matthieu
  • Koeniger, Winfried

Abstract

The academic literature has so far little to say about the underlying causes of the large structural asset and liability imbalances of emerging markets that frequently contributed to financial crises. The aim of the paper is to contribute to filling this gap by proposing a theoretical model that links currency and maturity mismatches with real volatility in the economy. We show that if (i) a significant share of the debt is denominated in foreign currency-creating a currency mismatch- and (ii) borrowing is constrained by solvency, then currency mismatch can create and exacerbate a maturity mismatch. An important feature of the model is that higher economic or political uncertainty tightens solvency constraints and tilts the debt profile towards short term debt, thereby increasing the volatility of output. Taking the model implications to the data, we find empirical support for the model's predictions using data for 28 emerging market economies. JEL Classification: F34, F36

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel & Bussière, Matthieu & Koeniger, Winfried, 2004. "Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure," Working Paper Series 409, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004409
    Note: 335955
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp409.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Uluc Aysun, 2012. "Capital Flows, Maturity Mismatches, and Profitability in Emerging Markets: Evidence From Bank Level Data," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 211-239, January-J.
    2. Qian, Xingwang & Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "International reserves and the maturity of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 399-418.
    3. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    4. Li, Xiang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Rohit, Allena, 2017. "Capital inflow-terms of trade ‘nexus’: Does it lead to financial crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 18-29.
    6. Asonuma, Tamon, 2014. "Sovereign defaults, external debt and real exchange rate dynamics," MPRA Paper 55133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Rohit, Allena, 2019. "Coupled dynamics with an external system and application to international finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 409-432.
    8. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    9. Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 1473, European Central Bank.
    10. Jaka Sriyana & Abdul Hakim, 2017. "Balance Sheet Approach for Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 68-72.
    11. Yohanes Maria Vianey Mudayen, 2017. "The Impact of Government's Foreign Debt on Fiscal Sustainability of Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 746-751.
    12. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Allena Rohit, 2016. "A Mathematical Model of Foreign Capital Inflow," Papers 1603.02438, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency mismatch; Debt; emerging markets.; Maturity mismatch; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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