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Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?

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Fernando A. Broner
Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks (“crises”) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) – the most important one – shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 328.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:328

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Economics Working Papers 838, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2004. "Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 265, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-894, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rebecca Neumann & Ron Penl, 2008. "Volatile capital flows: Interactions between de jure and de facto financial liberalization," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(3), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  2. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Johanna Francis, 2009. "The Cyclical Properties of Disaggregated Capital Flows," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand, 2007. "Modeling the impact of real and financial shocks on Mercosur: the role of the exchange rate regime," Working Papers 0701, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
  4. Partha Sen, 2007. "Capital Inflows, Financial Repression And Macroeconomic Policy In India Since The Reforms," Working papers 157, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrei A. Levchenko & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect from Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2007. "Modeling the impact of real and financial shocks on Mercosur: the role of the exchange rate regime," Post-Print halshs-00142506_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ana Fostel & Graciela Kaminsk, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 442, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Remberto Rhenals Monterroso & Alejandro Torres García, 2007. "Volatilidad de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo: evidencia para América Latina, 1970-2002," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 67, pages 9-42, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ana Fostel & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2007. "Latin America's Access to International Capital Markets: Good Behavior or Global Liquidity?," NBER Working Papers 13194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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