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Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes

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  • Bessler, Wolfgang
  • Blake, David
  • Lückoff, Peter
  • Tonks, Ian

Abstract

This paper investigates the reasons for the lack of long-term persistence in the investment performance of actively managed equity mutual funds. We document that the responses of investors, fund managers, and investment management companies to past performance have an important impact on future performance. Conditioning on fund flows and manager changes allows us to predict future performance of both past outperforming (winner) and past underperforming (loser) funds. Recent winner funds, experiencing neither high inflows nor the departure of a skilled fund manager, outperform by 3.60 percentage points based on risk-adjusted returns in the following year, relative to winner funds suffering from both effects. We also find that the performance of the worst performing funds experiencing both the replacement of the fund manager (internal governance) and high outflows (external governance) enjoy a subsequent increase in performance of 2.40 percentage points in the following year, relative to loser funds not experiencing these effects. Among loser funds, in particular, both mechanisms appear to interact strongly.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34185.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34185

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Related research

Keywords: Mutual Funds; Performance Persistence; Fund Flows; Manager Turnover;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
  2. Ariadna Dumitrescu & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2012. "Market Frictions, Investor Sophistication and Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," ESADE Working Papers 2013-1, ESADE Business School, Group for Research in Economics and Finance (GREF), revised Mar 2013.
  3. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.

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