Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bessler, Wolfgang
  • Blake, David
  • Lückoff, Peter
  • Tonks, Ian

Abstract

This paper investigates the reasons for the lack of long-term persistence in the investment performance of actively managed equity mutual funds. We document that the responses of investors, fund managers, and investment management companies to past performance have an important impact on future performance. Conditioning on fund flows and manager changes allows us to predict future performance of both past outperforming (winner) and past underperforming (loser) funds. Recent winner funds, experiencing neither high inflows nor the departure of a skilled fund manager, outperform by 3.60 percentage points based on risk-adjusted returns in the following year, relative to winner funds suffering from both effects. We also find that the performance of the worst performing funds experiencing both the replacement of the fund manager (internal governance) and high outflows (external governance) enjoy a subsequent increase in performance of 2.40 percentage points in the following year, relative to loser funds not experiencing these effects. Among loser funds, in particular, both mechanisms appear to interact strongly.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34185/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34185.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34185

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Mutual Funds; Performance Persistence; Fund Flows; Manager Turnover;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
  2. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2002. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp100, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  3. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1097-1120.
  4. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Mutual Fund Performance and Seemingly Unrelated Assets.”," CRSP working papers 527, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Richard B. Evans, 2010. "Mutual Fund Incubation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1581-1611, 08.
  6. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
  7. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
  8. Diane Del Guercio & Paula A. Tkac, 2001. "Star power: the effect of Morningstar ratings on mutual fund flows," Working Paper 2001-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  10. William N. Goetzmann & Stephen J. Brown, 2005. "Performance Persistence," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm451, Yale School of Management.
  11. Thomas Dangl & Youchang Wu & Josef Zechner, 2008. "Market Discipline and Internal Governance in the Mutual Fund Industry," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2307-2343, September.
  12. Aymen Karoui & Iwan Meier, 2009. "Performance and characteristics of mutual fund starts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 487-509.
  13. Massa, Massimo & Reuter, Jonathan & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2010. "When should firms share credit with employees? Evidence from anonymously managed mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 400-424, March.
  14. Ian Tonks, 2002. "Performance persistence of pension fund managers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24942, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  15. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
  16. Dahlquist, Magnus & Engström, Stefan & Söderlind, Paul, 1999. "Performance and Characteristics of Swedish Mutual Funds," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 312, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 25 Nov 1999.
  17. David R. Gallagher & Prashanthi Nadarajah, 2004. "Top Management Turnover: An Analysis of Active Australian Investment Managers," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 29(2), pages 243-274, December.
  18. Goriaev, Alexei & Nijman, Theo E. & Werker, Bas J.M., 2008. "Performance information dissemination in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 144-159, May.
  19. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
  20. Randolph Cohen & Joshua Coval & Lubos Pastor, 2002. "Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep," NBER Working Papers 9359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
  22. Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1537-1573, 08.
  23. Ivkovic, Zoran & Weisbenner, Scott, 2009. "Individual investor mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 223-237, May.
  24. Jeffrey A. Busse & Paul J. Irvine, 2006. "Bayesian Alphas and Mutual Fund Persistence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2251-2288, October.
  25. Parrino, Robert & Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 2003. "Voting with their feet: institutional ownership changes around forced CEO turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 3-46, April.
  26. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Edelen, Roger M., 1999. "Investor flows and the assessed performance of open-end mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 439-466, September.
  28. Joshua M. Pollet & Mungo Wilson, 2008. "How Does Size Affect Mutual Fund Behavior?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2941-2969, December.
  29. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 343-368, September.
  30. Allan Timmermann & Asger Lunde, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," FMG Discussion Papers dp302, Financial Markets Group.
  31. Arturo Bris & Huseyin Gulen & Padmaja Kadiyala & Raghavendra Rau, 2005. "Good Stewards, Cheap Talkers, or Family Men? The Impact of Mutual Fund Closures on Fund Managers, Flows, Fees, and Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2658, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2006.
  32. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1996. "The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 133-57, April.
  33. Constantinides, George M, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence: Discussion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 791-92, July.
  34. Khorana, Ajay, 1996. "Top management turnover An empirical investigation of mutual fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 403-427, March.
  35. Julia Sawicki & Frank Finn, 2002. "Smart Money and Small Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5&6), pages 825-846.
  36. Simon Gervais & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2005. "Fund Families as Delegated Monitors of Money Managers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1139-1169.
  37. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & P. Raghavendra Rau, 2005. "Changing Names with Style: Mutual Fund Name Changes and Their Effects on Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2825-2858, December.
  38. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
  39. Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2003. "How Investors Interpret Past Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 2033-2058, October.
  40. Jonathan B. Berk & Ian Tonks, 2007. "Return Persistence and Fund Flows in the Worst Performing Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 13042, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
  42. Mark M. Carhart & Jennifer N. Carpenter & Anthony W. Lynch & David K. Musto, 2002. "Mutual Fund Survivorship," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1439-1463.
  43. Aneel Keswani & David Stolin, 2008. "Which Money Is Smart? Mutual Fund Buys and Sells of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 85-118, 02.
  44. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
  45. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  46. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ariadna Dumitrescu & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2012. "Market Frictions, Investor Sophistication and Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," ESADE Working Papers 2013-1, ESADE Business School, Group for Research in Economics and Finance (GREF), revised Mar 2013.
  2. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
  3. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.