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Bayesian Alphas and Mutual Fund Persistence

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  • JEFFREY A. BUSSE
  • PAUL J. IRVINE
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    Abstract

    We use daily returns to compare the performance predictability of Bayesian estimates of mutual fund performance with standard frequentist measures. When the returns on passive nonbenchmark assets are correlated with fund holdings, incorporating histories of these returns produces a performance measure that predicts future performance better than standard measures do. Bayesian alphas based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are particularly useful for predicting future standard CAPM alphas. Over our sample period, priors consistent with moderate to diffuse beliefs in managerial skill dominate more skeptical prior beliefs, a result that is consistent with investor cash flows. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 5 (October)
    Pages: 2251-2288

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:5:p:2251-2288

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    Cited by:
    1. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," Working Papers 2014/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    2. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Huij, Joop & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Cross-sectional learning and short-run persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 973-997, March.
    5. Hunter, David & Kandel, Eugene & Kandel, Shmuel & Wermers, Russ, 2014. "Mutual fund performance evaluation with active peer benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 1-29.
    6. Bauer, Rob & Cosemans, Mathijs & Eichholtz, Piet, 2009. "Option trading and individual investor performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 731-746, April.
    7. Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
    8. Doron Avramov & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Bayesian Portfolio Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47, December.
    9. Shaun Bond & Paul Mitchell, 2010. "Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-79, July.
    10. Javier Gil-Bazo & Pablo Ruiz-Verdu, 2006. "Yet Another Puzzle? The Relation Between Price And Performance In The Mutual Fund Industry," Business Economics Working Papers wb066519, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    11. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.

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