The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis
AbstractThis paper investigates the process determining mutual funds' conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparametric approach to estimate the effects of a fund's age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship. Hence young and very old funds are least likely to be closed down. A fund's relative performance and (less significantly) the level of return in the sector in which the fund operates are also identified as important factors in the closure decision. Results from semiparametric Cox regressions are compared with those from the discrete choice probit model used by Brown and Goetzmann (1995). Finally, we provide a complete summary of the fund attrition process by estimating the survivor function, indicating the proportion of funds that survive up to a given age, and we identify the effect of fund attrition on standard measures of persistence of fund performance.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt1pd3z1hm.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Phone: (858) 534-3383
Fax: (858) 534-7040
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucsdecon/
More information through EDIRC
mutual funds; duration analysis; Cox regression; discrete choice model;
Other versions of this item:
- Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan & Blake, David, 1999. "The hazards of mutual fund underperformance: A Cox regression analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-152, April.
- Allan Timmermann & Asger Lunde, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," FMG Discussion Papers dp302, Financial Markets Group.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N, 1995.
" Performance Persistence,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 679-98, June.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. " The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-84, December.
- Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, .
"Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
23-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
- Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
- Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June.
- Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chevalier, J. & Ellison, G., 1996.
"Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives,"
96-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
- Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. " Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-72, June.
- Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80.
- M. K. Berkowitz & Y. Kotowitz, 1993. "Incentives and Efficiency in the Market for Management Services: A Study of Canadian Mutual Funds," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 850-66, November.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
- Tunali, Insan & Pritchett, Jonathan B, 1997. "Cox Regression with Alternative Concepts of Waiting Time: The New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1853," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
- Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
- Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & James Park, 1998.
"Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm83, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
- Stephen Brown, 1999. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- William N. Goetzmann & Stephen J. Brown & James M. Park, 2004. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm10, Yale School of Management.
- Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-26-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Incentive structures in institutional asset management and their implications for financial markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 21, January.
- Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006.
"The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan,"
06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2007. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-204, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Zhao, Xinge, 2004. "Why are some mutual funds closed to new investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1867-1887, August.
- Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January.
- Boyson, Nicole M., 2010. "Implicit incentives and reputational herding by hedge fund managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-299, June.
- Yamashita, Takashi, 2007. "House price appreciation, liquidity constraints, and second mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 424-440, November.
- Carree, Martin A., 2003. "A hazard rate analysis of Russian commercial banks in the period 1994-1997," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 255-269, September.
- Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," Working Papers 2014/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
- Alex Grecu & Burton G. Malkiel & Atanu Saha, 2006. "Why Do Hedge Funds Stop Reporting Their Performance?," Working Papers 78, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fletcher, Jonathan & Forbes, David, 2002. "An exploration of the persistence of UK unit trust performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 475-493, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.