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The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis

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  • Allan Timmermann

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  • Asger Lunde

Abstract

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparmetric approach to estimate the effects of a funds age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship. Hence young and very old funds are least likely to be closed down. A funds relative performance and (less significantly) the level of return in the sector in which the fund operates are also identified as important factors in the closure decision. Results from semiparametric Cox regressions aaaare compared with those from the discrete choice probit model used by Brown and Goetzmann (1995). Finally, we provide a complete summary of the fund attrition process by estimating the survivor function, indicating the proportion of funds that survive up to a given age, and we identify the effect of fund attrition on standard measure of persistence of fund performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan Timmermann & Asger Lunde, 1998. "The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis," FMG Discussion Papers dp302, Financial Markets Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Grecu & Burton G. Malkiel & Atanu Saha, 2006. "Why Do Hedge Funds Stop Reporting Their Performance?," Working Papers 78, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Darolles, Serge & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simon, Guillaume, 2010. "Nonparametric Analysis of Hedge Funds Lifetimes," IDEI Working Papers 620, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    3. Ma, Tiejun & Tang, Leilei & McGroarty, Frank & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E. V, 2016. "Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 397-410.
    4. Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    6. Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew & Dowd, Kevin, 2008. "Turning pension plans into pension planes: What investment strategy designers of defined contribution pension plans can learn from commercial aircraft designers," MPRA Paper 33749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Incentive structures in institutional asset management and their implications for financial markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 21.
    9. Carree, Martin A., 2003. "A hazard rate analysis of Russian commercial banks in the period 1994-1997," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 255-269, September.
    10. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January.
    11. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm83, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:124malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Boldron, François & Fève, Frédérique & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Panet-Amaro, C. & Valognes, C., 2010. "Econometric Models and the Evolution of Post-Offices Network," TSE Working Papers 10-180, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2014. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," Working Papers 2014/01, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    15. Mohammad Mojtahedi & Sidney Newton & Jason Meding, 2017. "Predicting the resilience of transport infrastructure to a natural disaster using Cox’s proportional hazards regression model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1119-1133, January.
    16. Jung-Min KIM, 2015. "Failure Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns," Working Papers 2015-13, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    17. Boyson, Nicole M., 2010. "Implicit incentives and reputational herding by hedge fund managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-299, June.
    18. Fletcher, Jonathan & Forbes, David, 2002. "An exploration of the persistence of UK unit trust performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 475-493, December.
    19. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2015. "Investment funds? vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," BCL working papers 95, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    20. Cogneau, Philippe & Hübner, Georges, 2015. "The prediction of fund failure through performance diagnostics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-241.
    21. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2014. "A framework for tracking changes in the intensity of investment funds' systemic risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 343-368.
    22. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Are hedge funds registered in Delaware different?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 232-246.
    23. Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-26-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    24. Yamashita, Takashi, 2007. "House price appreciation, liquidity constraints, and second mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 424-440, November.
    25. Zhao, Xinge, 2004. "Why are some mutual funds closed to new investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1867-1887, August.

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