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The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis

  • Lunde, Asger
  • Timmermann, Allan
  • Blake, David

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds' conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparametric approach to estimate the effects of a fund's age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship. Hence young and very old funds are least likely to be closed down. A fund's relative performance and (less significantly) the level of return in the sector in which the fund operates are also identified as important factors in the closure decision. Results from semiparametric Cox regressions are compared with those from the discrete choice probit model used by Brown and Goetzmann (1995). Finally, we provide a complete summary of the fund attrition process by estimating the survivor function, indicating the proportion of funds that survive up to a given age, and we identify the effect of fund attrition on standard measures of persistence of fund performance.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt1pd3z1hm.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt1pd3z1hm
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  1. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
  2. Tunali, Insan & Pritchett, Jonathan B, 1997. "Cox Regression with Alternative Concepts of Waiting Time: The New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1853," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
  3. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 1721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  5. William N. Goetzmann & Stephen J. Brown, 2005. "Performance Persistence," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm451, Yale School of Management.
  6. Brown, Stephen J, et al, 1992. "Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 553-80.
  7. Lehmann, Bruce N & Modest, David M, 1987. " Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Comparison of Benchmarks and Benchmark Comparisons," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 233-65, June.
  8. M. K. Berkowitz & Y. Kotowitz, 1993. "Incentives and Efficiency in the Market for Management Services: A Study of Canadian Mutual Funds," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 850-66, November.
  9. Malkiel, Burton G, 1995. " Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971 to 1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 549-72, June.
  10. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, . "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  11. Elton, Edwin J, et al, 1993. "Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22.
  12. Chevalier, J. & Ellison, G., 1996. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Working papers 96-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  14. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. " The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-84, December.
  15. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
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