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The Hazards of Mutual Fund Underperformance: A Cox Regression Analysis

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Allan Timmermann ()
Asger Lunde

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Abstract

This paper investigates the process determining mutual funds conditional probability of closure, i.e. their hazard function. Using a nonparmetric approach to estimate the effects of a funds age on its hazard rate, we find a distinctly nonlinear, inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship. Hence young and very old funds are least likely to be closed down. A funds relative performance and (less significantly) the level of return in the sector in which the fund operates are also identified as important factors in the closure decision. Results from semiparametric Cox regressions aaaare compared with those from the discrete choice probit model used by Brown and Goetzmann (1995). Finally, we provide a complete summary of the fund attrition process by estimating the survivor function, indicating the proportion of funds that survive up to a given age, and we identify the effect of fund attrition on standard measure of persistence of fund performance.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp302.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp302

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  1. Stephen Brown, 1999. "Conditions for Survival: Changing Risk and the Performance of Hedge Fund Managers and CTAs," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-077, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Qiang Bu & Nelson Lacey, 2009. "On understanding mutual fund terminations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 80-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," Research Paper ERS-2000-26-STR Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kozo Kiyota & Miho Takizawa, 2006. "The Shadow of Death: Pre-exit Performance of Firms in Japan," Discussion papers 06033, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
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