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Monetary-fiscal-trade policy and economic growth in Pakistan: time series empirical investigation

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  • Syed tehseen, jawaid
  • Faisal sultan, qadri
  • Nasir, ali

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of monetary, fiscal and trade policy on economic growth in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1981 to 2009. Money supply, government expenditure and trade openness are used as proxies of monetary, fiscal and trade policy respectively. Cointegration and error correction model indicate the existence of positive significant long run and short run relationship of monetary and fiscal policy with economic growth. Result also indicates that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in Pakistan. In contrast, trade policy has insignificant effect on economic growth both in the short run and in the long run. In light of the findings, it is suggested that the policy makers should focus more on monetary policy in order to ensure economic growth in the country. It is also recommended that further research should be conducted to find out such components of exports and imports which lead to the ineffectiveness of trade policy to enhance economic growth in Pakistan.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32680.

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Date of creation: 21 Jul 2011
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 3.1(2011): pp. 133-138
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32680

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Keywords: Monetary; Fiscal; Trade; Economic Growth;

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  1. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Arif, Imtiaz & Naeemullah, Syed Muhammad, 2010. "Comparative analysis of monetary and fiscal Policy: a case study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany 30850, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2010.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Khalid Zaman & Bashir Khilji, 2014. "A note on pro-poor social expenditures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2121-2154, July.

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