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Do Fans Want Close Contests? A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association

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  • Daniel, Rascher
  • John Paul, Solmes

Abstract

The National Basketball Association claims to sell entertainment. Part of that entertainment is close, competitive contests with uncertain outcomes. However, hometown fans want the home team to win. Hence, the optimal probability that the home team wins a game, from the perspective of maximizing demand, lays somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0. Using data from individual games for the 2001-02 season, this optimal probability was estimated to be approximately 0.66. Fans want their home team to have about twice the chance to win a game as the visiting team.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 25829.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25829

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Keywords: uncertainty of outcome; basketball; linear regression; home court advantage; demand; attendance;

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  1. Kahn, Lawrence M & Sherer, Peter D, 1988. "Racial Differences in Professional Basketball Players' Compensation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 40-61, January.
  2. KÉSENNE, Stefan, 2002. "Club objectives and ticket pricing in professional team sports," Working Papers 2002018, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  3. Hausman, Jerry A & Leonard, Gregory K, 1997. "Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 586-624, October.
  4. Christopher R. Bollinger & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2003. "The Upside Potential of Hiring Risky Workers: Evidence from the Baseball Industry," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 923-944, October.
  5. Paul, Rodney J. & Weinbach, Andrew P., 2007. "The uncertainty of outcome and scoring effects on Nielsen ratings for Monday Night Football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 199-211.
  6. Michael R. Butler, 2002. "Interleague Play and Baseball Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 320-334, November.
  7. Kanazawa, Mark T & Funk, Jonas P, 2001. "Racial Discrimination in Professional Basketball: Evidence from Nielsen Ratings," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 599-608, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Wladimir Andreff, 2014. "Building Blocks for a Disequilibrium Model of a European Team Sports League," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00971782, HAL.
  2. repec:lan:wpaper:3966 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Buraimo, Babatunde & Simmons, Rob, 2009. "A tale of two audiences: Spectators, television viewers and outcome uncertainty in Spanish football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 326-338, July.
  4. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  5. repec:lan:wpaper:3573 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:lan:wpaper:3575 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:lan:wpaper:3681 is not listed on IDEAS

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