A trade-off criterion for evaluating effectiveness and reliability of alternative policy actions
AbstractThe evaluation of policy actions by means of macroeconomic models often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A rough analysis recommends to use those instruments that exhibit large multipliers. Government budget usually imposes some constraints on the policy action. Insted of the raw multiplier, a trade-off criterion could measure the effect of a variation of the instrument associated with a given cost in terms of government deficit. The trade-off criterion can be computed from the macroeconomic model, and this paper shows how to associate a standard error to the point estimate, thus providing a measurement of reliability of the policy instrument.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23869.
Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Trade-off criterion; multipliers; standard errors of multipliers; large scale econometric model; French economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
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"Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
[Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
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