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Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments

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  • Bianchi, Carlo
  • Brillet, Jean-Louis
  • Calzolari, Giorgio

Abstract

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier should be a trade-off criterion which measures the effect of a variation of the instrument associated with a given cost on government budget, trade balance, etc. The trade-off criterion computed from a macroeconomic model is obviously affected by uncertainty to some extent; a criterion which appears to be strongly effective might at the same time be affected by such an high degree of uncertainty as to recommend against its use. The problem of uncertainty due to estimation errors will be investigated in this paper through experiments on the Mini-DMS model of the French economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29119.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 1986
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29119

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Keywords: Macroeconometric model; French economy; stochastic simulation; multipliers; trade-off criteria; constraints on policy actions; asymptotic standard errors;

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  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1983. "Non-linear regression models," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 333-389 Elsevier.
  2. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
    [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m
    ," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
  3. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1985. "Effectiveness versus reliability of policy actions under government budget constraint: the case of France," MPRA Paper 29055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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