Structural Models of Interest Rate Determination and Portfolio Behavior in the Corporate and Government Bond Markets
AbstractThis paper summarizes some recent work in which we have modeled long-term interest rate determination in an explicit demand-supply context, using multi-equation structural models and directly contrasts such models with unrestricted reduced-form models. Wholly apart from questions of disaggregation and institutional detail, the explicitly structural nature of demand-supply models necessitates additional theoretical constructs beyond those required by unrestricted reduced-form models. Some of these conceptual inputs are already available from established portfolio theory, and others represent objects of current or prospective research. Experience to date with structural models of long-term interest rate determination suggests, however, that the exploitation of the richer theoretical framework yields not only insights about portfolio behavior but, very likely, improved interest rate models as well.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0205.
Date of creation: Jan 1981
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Friedman, Benjamin M. and Roley, V. Vance. "Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Determination." The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 6, No. 3, (Spring 1980), pp. 35-45.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium into Nominal Interest Rates?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 833-45, June.
- David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin, 1980.
"A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
548, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Backus, David, et al, 1980. "A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 259-93, Special I.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Multiperiod Consumption-Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 163-74, March.
- Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 661-89, August.
- James Tobin, 1956. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Who Puts the Inflation Premium Into Nominal Interests Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1970. "The Fundamental Approximation Theorem of Portfolio Analysis in terms of Means, Variances, and Higher Moments," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 537-42, October.
- Friedman, Benjamin M, 1979. "Substitution and Expectation Effects on Long-Term Borrowing Behavior and Long-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 131-50, May.
- James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Friedman, Benjamin Morton, 1977. "Financial Flow Variables and the Short-Run Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 4554309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.