Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects
AbstractOver the past year, there has been considerable debate about how the slowing of the United States and other major developed economies affects output growth across the world. The main purpose of this paper is to establish relevant conclusions on how the U.S., Euro Area and Japan gross domestic product growth affect international business cycle fluctuations, with the objective of identifying the main factors that influence spillovers into other countries. Using panel data regression, we conclude that output growth in the U.S. and Euro area are significant in explaining output growth across countries. Depending on the specifications, trade linkages play a significant role while financial linkages with respect to the three regions does not (except in one particular specification). There are signs of potential omitted variable bias in some regression indicating that some relevant variables have not been taken into account. There is also clear evidence of a structural change in the transmission mechanism of shocks after 1985 – since when shocks have become more country-specific.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18043.
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Output Growth; Trade and Financial Linkages; Structural Break; Cross- Section Panel Data.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2009-10-31 (Business Economics)
- NEP-FDG-2009-10-31 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-OPM-2009-10-31 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, October.
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