Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change
AbstractThis paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15624.
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Term structure; cointegration; structural change;
Other versions of this item:
- Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls, 2009. "Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change," Textos para discussÃ£o 175, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-17 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
- Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield, 2005.
"Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
2005 Meeting Papers
676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
- Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Stanley E. Zin, 2005. "Taylor Rules, McCallum Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994.
"Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
NBER Working Papers
3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003.
"Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Søren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2003. "More on Testing Exact Rational Expectations in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: Restricted Drift Terms," Discussion Papers 348, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.