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Learning from multiple analogies: an Information Theoretic framework for predicting criminal recidivism

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Author Info
Bhati, Avinash

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Abstract

If recidivism is defined as rearrest within a finite period following release from prison, then the kinds of outcomes typically available to researchers include: (i) whether or not the individual was rearrested within the follow-up period; (ii) how many times the individual was rearrested; and (iii) what was the duration from release to first (or subsequent) rearrest. Since these outcomes are all different manifestations of the same underlying stochastic process, they provide multiple analogies from which to recover information about it. This paper develops a semi-parametric approach for utilizing information in these, and several other related outcomes, to predict criminal recidivism and presents preliminary findings.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11850/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11850.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11850

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Related research
Keywords: information theory; criminal recidivism; predictive modeling; multiple analogies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Winkelmann, Rainer, 1995. "Duration Dependence and Dispersion in Count-Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 467-74, October.
  2. Ryu, Hang K., 1993. "Maximum entropy estimation of density and regression functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 397-440, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zellner, A., 1988. "Optimal Information-Processing And Bayes' Theorem," Papers m8803, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  4. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-10.


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