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Duration Dependence and Dispersion in Count-Data Models

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  • Winkelmann, Rainer

Abstract

This paper explores the relation between nonexponential waiting times between events and the distribution of the number of events in a fixed time interval. It is shown that within this framework the frequently observed phenomenon of overdispersion, i.e., a variance that exceeds the mean, is caused by a decreasing hazard function of the waiting times, while an increasing hazard function leads to underdispersion. Using the assumption of i.i.d. gamma distributed waiting times, a new count data model is derived. Its use is illustrated in two applications: the number of births and the number of doctor consultations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 467-74

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:13:y:1995:i:4:p:467-74

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Cited by:
  1. Gregori Baetschmann & Rainer Winkelmann, 2014. "A dynamic hurdle model for zero-inflated count data: with an application to health care utilization," ECON - Working Papers 151, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Alison L. Booth & Hiau Joo Kee, 2009. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Patterns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 183-208, 04.
  3. Bijwaard, G.E. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2003. "Modeling purchases as repeated events," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-45, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "Is Job Stability Declining in Germany? Evidences from Count Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Eugenio Miravete, 2007. "“Competing with Menus of Tariff Options”," Working Papers 07-02, NET Institute, revised Jul 2007.
  6. Hoyos, David & Riera, Pere, 2013. "Convergent validity between revealed and stated recreation demand data: Some empirical evidence from the Basque Country, Spain," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 234-248.
  7. Bhati, Avinash, 2007. "Learning from multiple analogies: an Information Theoretic framework for predicting criminal recidivism," MPRA Paper 11850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Rock, Steve & Sedo, Stanley & Willenborg, Michael, 2000. "Analyst following and count-data econometrics," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 351-373, December.
  9. Margarita E. Romero Rodríguez & Enrique Los Arcos & Victor Cano Fernández & Miguel Sánchez Padrón, 2001. "Modelo para datos de recuentro de corte transversal con exceso de ceros. Aplicación a citas patentes," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-05, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
  10. Eugenio J. Miravete, 2004. "The Doubtful Profitability of Foggy Pricing," Working Papers 04-07, NET Institute.
  11. Haab, T. C., 2003. "Temporal correlation in recreation demand models with limited data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 195-212, March.
  12. Hagmark, Per-Erik, 2009. "A new concept for count distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 1120-1124, April.
  13. Cuccia, Tiziana, 2009. "A Contingent Ranking Study on the Preferences of Tourists across Seasons/A Contingent Ranking Study on the Preferences of Tourists across Seasons," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 161-176, Abril.

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